000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051554
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE RELOCATED ALONG 97W S OF 14N BASED ON AN IMPROVING 
CIRCULATION AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SW OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM SAN JOSE COSTA RICA 
INDICATE THAT THIS WAVE PASSED THAT LOCATION EARLY ON 3 
JULY...ABOUT 48 HRS AGO...WHICH WOULD GIVE IT A WWD MOVEMENT OF 
ABOUT 15 KT. THIS ALSO APPEARS TO FIT WELL WITH THE ELY SURGE 
WHICH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/CONVECTION FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 94W-105W.

TROPICAL WAVE RELOCATED ALONG 110W S OF 16N BASED ON A BROAD 
CURVE IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD EXTENDING N OF THE ITCZ. THIS 
WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE PASSED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE 
DAY OF 30 JUN...AND WOULD THUS GIVE IT A WWD MOVEMENT OF 10-15 
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 108W-112W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 128W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. A LOW-LEVEL 
SWIRL IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N128W WITH A PRONOUNCED NWD 
PROTRUSION OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 122W-130W. THERE IS VERY LITTLE 
DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS ITSELF AS IT IS MORE 
CONCENTRATED FARTHER SE ALONG THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 9N85W 11N108W 8N120W 12N128W 
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 
77W-94W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 
94W-105W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 108W-123W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS W 
OF 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
THE DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE ERN PART OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA IS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE BORDER OF 
GUATEMALA AND MEXICO WHICH IS RETROGRADING WWD...AND PRODUCING 
NLY DIVERGENT FLOW FROM SRN MEXICO SWD OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS. 
THE FLOW TURNS W/NWLY E OF 99W AND ELY W OF 99W AND IS FOSTERING 
AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BETWEEN 
93W-106W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. FARTHER N...A 
CUT-OFF UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NRN MEXICO AND IS PULLING 
SOME DRIER AIR SWD ACROSS THE W SIDE OF THE COUNTRY.

W OF 110W...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED JUST SW OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 20N112W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO 
12N130W. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW LIES S OF THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN 
110W AND 130W...WITH HIGH MOISTURE VALUES TRAVELING WWD WITHIN 
THE TRADES AND ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL TROPICAL WAVES. A LARGE 
AND COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH LIES FARTHER NW BETWEEN ALASKA AND 
HAWAII WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT CLIPPING THE NW PART OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. AN EXTENSION OF THIS TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS INTO 
THE TROPICS AND LIES ALONG 135W S OF 20N. A LARGE PATCH OF UPPER 
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LIES GENERALLY W OF 125W DUE TO CONFLUENCE NEAR 
THESE TROUGHS.

$$
BERG