000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050915 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU JUL 5 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W N OF 3N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 118W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ WITH SUBSTANTIAL OUTFLOW BUT NO ORGANIZATION. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 129W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SMALL SCALE CYCLONIC ROTATION NOTED NEAR 12N127W WITH ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 11N129W PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 9N105W 10N130W 7N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 7N78W 6N82W 6N105W 8N108W 10N111W AND 11N129W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 102W AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 105W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N115W TO 9N122W. ...DISCUSSION... A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE SW CONUS ALONG 104W TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WAS STATIONARY AND BLOCKING THE WESTERLIES TO THE NW. A INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS ON THE SW SIDE NEAR 22N130W EMBEDDED IN VERY DRY AIR ALOFT ACCORDING TO SSMI IMAGERY. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT WEAK TRPL WAVES WERE ALONG 105W AND 118W WITH LIMITED CONVECTION. A WEAKER WAVE WAS ALONG 128W WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ. A 1025 MB HIGH ANCHORED THE PACIFIC RIDGE NEAR 33N137W. QUIKSCAT AND SSMI SHOW N AND NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 120W THEN EXITING BETWEEN 10N AND 22N W OF 130W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE LIGHT NWLY. LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WEAK VORTICITY CENTERS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE CLOCKWISE FROM THE TX REGION SW AROUND THE RIDGE THEN HEAD NW AS IS A INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 130W WHICH TRYING TO INTERACT WITH OTHER AREAS OF VORTICITY NEAR 140W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 TRPL WAVES WILL CONTINUE MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT WITH NO DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PACIFIC RIDGE AND IT'S ASSOCIATED WINDS. GFS MODEL SHOWS SOME INCREASE IN ELY WINDS W OF NICARAGUA TO 20 KT WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 8 FT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL REMAIN LIGHT NWLY. FOR DAY 2 THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE WITH THE AXIS N/S ALONG 105W. THE INVERTED TROUGH ON THE SW SIDE OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES IT'S SLOW NWD MOVEMENT BUT WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE..LITTLE WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST NW OF THE AREA WITH IT'S AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 17N110W. GFS MODEL TRYING TO DEVELOP WAVE ALONG 120W BUT COULD BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND THUS OVERDONE. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL REMAIN LIGHT NWLY WITH SEAS TO 6 FT. ELY WINDS W OF NICARAGUA WILL REMAIN TO 20 KT POSSIBLY EXTENDING WWD TO 100W. SOME CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 20 KT S OF 10N AND E OF 120W. $$ RRG