000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050332
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUL 5 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 104W N OF 3N MOVING W 15 KT. SLIGHT CURVATURE
IN THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MAINLY W OF
AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 
105W-112W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 117W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. ACTIVE  
CONVECTION IS FLARING UP BETWEEN 7N-12N BETWEEN 113W-121W AND 
APPEARS TO BE TIED STRONGLY TO THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 127W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE 
HAS A STRONGER AMPLITUDE WITH THE ITCZ PERTURBED SLIGHTLY N. A 
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 
13N124W WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALIGNED NE/SW ALONG THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 8N102W 9N129W 7N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 94W AND 
99W. MODERATE STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 110W 
AND BETWEEN 114W AND 121W.

...DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST OFF THE MEXICAN 
COAST NEAR 20N110W AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN 
JUST E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE PRODUCING NLY SHEAR ACROSS 
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA E OF 100W. CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED 
AND PUSHING S AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST. S OF THE ITCZ...A 
BROAD CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS NW 
TO 14N110W WITH BROAD-SCALE DRY AIR S OF 6N. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW 
LOCATED W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 27N124W IS MOVING SLOWLY W 
AND DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE POLEWARD ACROSS MUCH OF BAJA AND 
NW MEXICO. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...THERE 
IS NO ACCOMPANYING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE S...WHICH 
HAS LIMITED PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE 
DOMINATES THE REGION W OF 120W WITH RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FLOW 
AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

$$
MUNDELL