000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042155
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUL 4 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W N OF 4N MOVING W 15 KT. SLIGHT CURVATURE
IN THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MAINLY W OF
AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 
103W-107W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 116W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. NORTHERLY 
FLOW AROUND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION FROM
THE WAVE...AND APPEARS TO BE TIED MORE STRONGLY TO THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 125W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE 
HAS A STRONGER AMPLITUDE WITH THE ITCZ PERTURBED SLIGHTLY N. A 
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 
13N124W WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALIGNED NE/SW ALONG THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 8N85W 9N101W 9N131W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 98W... 
104W AND 108W...117W AND 119W.

...DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST OFF THE MEXICAN 
COAST NEAR 20N110W AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN 
JUST E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE PRODUCING NLY SHEAR ALOFT 
ACROSS MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA E OF 100W. CONVECTION IS QUITE 
DISORGANIZED AND PUSHING S AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST. S OF THE 
ITCZ...A BROAD CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GALAPAGOS 
ISLANDS NW TO 14N110W WITH BROAD-SCALE DRY AIR S OF 6N. A LARGE 
UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 27N124W IS 
MOVING SLOWLY W AND DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS MUCH 
OF BAJA AND EXTREME NW MEXICO. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...THERE IS NO ACCOMPANYING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE 
SURGE FROM THE S...WHICH HAS LIMITED PRECIPITATION OVER THE 
AREA. ABUNDANT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE REGION W OF 
120W WITH RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FLOW AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

$$
MUNDELL