000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040908
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100/101W N OF 4N MOVING W 15 KT. SUBSIDENT 
NLY FLOW ALOFT IS LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO A SMALL 
AREA WITHIN OF SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE 
AXIS. THE CONVECTION WAS WEAKENING WITH TIME. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 113W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WHERE WAVE AXIS INTERSECTS ITCZ FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 
112W AND 116W. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 123W/124W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-12 KT. 
ALTHOUGH THE WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVELS AND IS IN AN 
AREA OF DECENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT...ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION AT BEST IS CURRENTLY NOTED.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 10N95W 10N120W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 78W 
TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM N OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 101W AND 103W...AND WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
113W AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED JUST S OF THE ENTRANCE TO 
THE SEA OF CORTEZ NEAR 20N108W. DESPITE SUBSIDENT NLY FLOW ALOFT 
BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ALLOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
REMAINS ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE ROUGHLY ALONG 
104W. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG ELY FLOW OVER THE WRN 
CARIBBEAN HAS INITIATED GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
OF UP TO 20 KT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 48 
HOURS AND MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES. 

W OF 110W...
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N123W. THE LOW IS DRAWING TROPICAL 
MOISTURE PLUME FROM 8N130W THROUGH SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NW 
MEXICO. THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BIFURCATED ALONG A DEFORMATION 
AXIS OVER NRN MEXICO WITH THE WRN BRANCH OF MOISTURE WRAPPING 
AROUND TO THE N OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW AND THE ERN 
BRANCH OF MOISTURE STREAMING EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO THE 
GULF. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR S OF THE UPPER LOW AND GENERALLY W OF 
120W IS KEEPING CONVECTION LIMITED OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED ACTIVITY 
NEAR THE ITCZ. A 1025 MB HIGH PRES AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 
32N135W. FRESH NLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN THE HIGH CENTER 
AND THE BAJA COAST. MODERATE TO LARGE SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE 
OUT OF THE SRN HEMISPHERE GENERALLY S OF 10N AND W OF 120W.

$$
COBB