000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040337
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUL 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W N OF 4N MOVING W 15 KT. SUBSIDENT NLY 
FLOW ALOFT IS LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE WAVE 
AXIS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WHERE WAVE AXIS INTERSECTS ITCZ FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 
108W AND 111W. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 122W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. ALTHOUGH THE 
WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVELS AND IS IN AN AREA OF 
DECENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ONGOING 
CURRENTLY.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 10N93W 10N113W 11N122W 
72N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 91W 
AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 108W AND 
111W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER W CENTRAL MEXICO THIS 
AFTERNOON. DESPITE SUBSIDENT NLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE 
AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE IS ALLOW SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER ALONG THE ITCZ E 
OF 95W. AN PROMINENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE ROUGHLY ALONG 103W. THIS IS INFLUENCING A WEAK 
1010 MB SURFACE LOW DIRECTLY BELOW IT AT 10N104W. 
OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG ELY FLOW OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN WILL 
INITIATE GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OF UP TO 20 KT 
STARTING LATE TONIGHT.

W OF 110W...
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N121W. THIS IS DRAWING TROPICAL 
MOISTURE PLUME FROM 8N130W THROUGH SRN BAJA. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR E 
OF THIS TROUGH AXIS IS KEEPING CONVECTION LIMITED OUTSIDE OF 
SCATTERED ACTIVITY NEAR THE ITCZ. A 1026 MB HIGH PRES AREA IS 
CENTERED NEAR 32N134W...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE 
CENTRAL PACIFIC. FRESH NLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN THE 
HIGH CENTER AND THE BAJA COAST. MODERATE TO LARGE SWELL 
CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE SRN HEMISPHERE GENERALLY S OF 10N 
AND W OF 120W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN