000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032208
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUL 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W N OF 4N MOVING W 15 KT. SUBSIDENT NLY 
FLOW ALOFT IS LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE WAVE 
AXIS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

THE WAVE IS 
MOVED SLIGHTLY AHEAD BASED ON A N/S ORIENTED LINE OF LOW-LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS 
EXTENDING N TOWARDS THE MEXICAN COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN 96W-101W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WHERE WAVE AXIS INTERSECTS ITCZ FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 
103W AND 109W. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 122W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. ALTHOUGH THE 
WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVELS AND IS IN AN AREA OF 
DECENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT...CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO SCATTERED 
MODERATE CLUSTERS NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 121W AND 
124W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 8N83W 12N93W 9N112W 12N121W 
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 95W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
103W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
121W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER W CENTRAL MEXICO THIS 
AFTERNOON. DESPITE SUBSIDENT NLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE 
AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE IS ALLOW SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER ALONG THE ITCZ E 
OF 95W. AN PROMINENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE ROUGHLY ALONG 103W. THIS IS INFLUENCING A WEAK 
1010 MB SURFACE LOW DIRECTLY BELOW IT AT 10N104W. 
OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG ELY FLOW OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN WILL 
INITIATE GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OF UP TO 20 KT 
STARTING LATE TONIGHT.

W OF 110W...
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N121W. THIS IS DRAWING TROPICAL 
MOISTURE PLUME FROM 8N130W THROUGH SRN BAJA. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR E 
OF THIS TROUGH AXIS IS KEEPING CONVECTION LIMITED OUTSIDE OF 
SCATTERED ACTIVITY NEAR THE ITCZ. A 1026 MB HIGH PRES AREA IS 
CENTERED NEAR 32N134W...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE 
CENTRAL PACIFIC. FRESH NLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN THE 
HIGH CENTER AND THE BAJA COAST. MODERATE TO LARGE SWELL 
CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE SRN HEMISPHERE GENERALLY S OF 10N 
AND W OF 120W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN