000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031522
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUL 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE MOVED AHEAD TO 96W/97W N OF 4N MOVING W 15 KT. THE 
WAVE IS MOVED SLIGHTLY AHEAD BASED ON A N/S ORIENTED LINE OF 
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTENDING N TOWARDS THE MEXICAN COAST. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN 96W-101W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED PRIMARILY NEAR 
THE ITCZ...AND ABOUT 300 NM W OF A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW WHICH HAS 
DEVELOPED NEAR 10N104W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 120W S OF 18N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS IS A HIGH 
AMPLITUDE WAVE WHICH HAS PRODUCED A PRONOUNCED NWD PROTRUSION OF 
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W-130W. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A 
ZONE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE NEAR THE WAVE...BUT DEEP 
CONVECTION IS ALIGNED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N77W 12N97W 9N105W 13N119W 7N135W 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 
77W-90W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 96W-101W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W-130W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS W OF 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM 
18N106W NEWD INTO THE FAR WRN GULF OF MEXICO...AND IS DRIVING 
PRIMARILY NE TO ELY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION E OF 110W. THE 
FLOW DOES TURN MORE NLY CLOSER TO THE EQUATOR AS IT ROUNDS AN 
EQUATORIAL UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING NW FROM NRN PERU. THE DEEPEST 
MOISTURE LIES WITHIN A BELT FROM 3N NWD TO THE COAST...ALSO 
EXTENDING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN LANDMASS. 
DISORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF TSTM ACTIVITY ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE 
ITCZ AXIS OVER OPEN WATERS...WHILE THE LAND-BASED CONVECTION IS 
MOSTLY LOCATED OVER COSTA RICA AS WELL AS SRN MEXICO.

W OF 110W...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY STRONG UPPER 
RIDGING ALONG 115W OVER THE GREAT BASIN OF THE WRN U.S. AND DEEP 
LONGWAVE TROUGHING ALONG 150W EXTENDING WELL INTO THE DEEP 
TROPICS. IN ADDITION...A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS DRIFTING WWD AWAY 
FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 24N118W AS IT MEANDERS WITHIN THE MEAN 
RIDGE AXIS TO ITS N. THE UPPER LOW IS ACTING TO DRAW HIGH LEVEL 
MOISTURE NWD FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 120W TOWARDS SRN 
BAJA...THEN CURLS IT NW AROUND ITS CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THESE 
ARE MAINLY MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE SURFACE DOMINATED 
BY A STABLE STRATUS LAYER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 
THE HIGH/RIDGE IS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED DUE TO A COLD FRONT LOCATED 
JUST NW OF THE AREA...AND AS A RESULT THE ELY TRADES ARE NOT 
PARTICULARLY STRONG AT THE MOMENT.

$$
BERG