000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030854
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUL 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0845 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W N OF 7N TO THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE 
...MOVING W 10-12 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION 
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MEXICO JUST W OF AND ALONG THE ISTHMUS OF  
TEHUANTEPEC ABOUT 120-150 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. WEAKENING 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED OVER EXTREME SE MEXICO AND WRN GUATEMALA. 
AN AREA OF SCATTRED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 45-60 NM OF 11.5N96W. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W FROM 5N-16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 
120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS AND S OF THE ITCZ...FROM 8N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 106W AND 110W. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO 
INCREASE TUE AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO AN AREA OF MORE FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS ALOFT. 

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 6N TO 17N ALONG 120W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE 
WAVE IS ENCOUNTERING MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY SHEAR ALOFT WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS AND ALONG THE ITCZ. 
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY 24 HOURS AS THE WAVE 
ENTERS A MORE UNFAVORABLE AREA W OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WITH 
DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS...6N77W 9N90W 9N98W 11N108W 
12N120W 8N130W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 
120-180 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 128W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM N OF THE AXIS TO THE COAST OF 
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 45-60 
NM OF 11.5N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 
136W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT WAS OVER BELIZE 24 HOURS AGO HAS  
MERGED WITH A LARGER UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER WRN MEXICO NEAR
20N105W. A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS IMPINGING UPON THE SRN 
EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE COMPLEX GENERALLY ALONG 102W FROM 6N TO 
15N WITH AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 12N102W. FEATURE 
WAS MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. DIVERGENCE W OF THIS TROUGH IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W. AN 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE W OF THE UPPER RIDGE COMPLEX...FROM 
NW MEXICO TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N118W...ANOTHER UPPER LOW NEAR
20N123W...THEN CONTINUES SW TO 10N130W. W OF THE TROUGH...NLY 
SUBSIDENT FLOW ALOFT IS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY DRY AND 
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.

AT THE SURFACE...STATIONARY 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS 
CENTERED NEAR 30N133W. MODERATE TO FRESH NLY FLOW CONTINUES ON 
THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRES OFFSHORE OF THE NRN BAJA 
COAST. A SURGE OF ELY WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL 
PUSH INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS WITH 
WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT AND TO 20-25 KT BY 24 HOURS AND 
CONTINUING INTO THU. LARGE CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL IS STILL 
MOVING INTO AREA GENERALLY S OF 10N AND W OF 100W. IN 
ADDITION...RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO 
THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST BETWEEN GUATEMALA AND COSTA RICA WITH
WAVE PERIODS SHORTENING LATER TODAY. 

$$
COBB