000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030335
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUL 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 8N THROUGH NRN YUCATAN...MOVING W 
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE NRN 
EXTENT OF THE AXIS OVER LAND...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS 
EVIDENT OVER PACIFIC WATERS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W FROM 6N-16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE 
AXIS S OF THE ITCZ...FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 106W AND 109W. 
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE 
WAVE MOVES INTO AN AREA OF MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. 

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 6N TO 16N ALONG 120W MOVING W 10-15 KT. ONLY 
MODEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOUR...MAINLY NEAR THE ITCZ...BEFORE THE WAVE ENTERS A MORE 
UNFAVORABLE AREA WITH DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS...9N84W 8N100W 11N107W 
11N115W 12N120W 7N130W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM 
S OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 109W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM 
S OF AXIS BETWEEN 114W AND 116W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM 
S OF AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 127W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT WAS OFF BELIZE YESTERDAY HAS 
SHIFTED W TO OVER NRN GUATEMALA...AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF 
MERGING WITH A LARGER UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. A 
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS DENTING INTO THE SRN EDGE OF THE 
UPPER RIDGE COMPLEX GENERALLY ALONG 99W FROM 6N TO 13N. 
DIVERGENCE E OF THIS TROUGH HAD BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG 
ROUGHLY 96W...BUT MOST OF THIS IS DIMINISHING CURRENTLY. 
HOWEVER...A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT NEAR 
14N95W UNDER THE NRN EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...AND IS 
MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE W OF THE 
UPPER RIDGE COMPLEX...FROM NRN MEXICO TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 
13N116W...SW TO 10N129W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER 
TROUGH AND THE ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVES NEAR 106W AND 118W AS WELL PROVIDING 
NE UPPER EXHAUST. W OF THE TROUGH...NLY SUBSIDENT FLOW ALOFT IS 
KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY DRY AND SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE...STATIONARY 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED 
NEAR 30N134W. MODERATE TO FRESH NLY FLOW CONTINUES ON THE ERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRES OFFSHORE OF THE NRN BAJA COAST. A 
SURGE OF ELY WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH INTO THE 
PAPAGAYO AREA STARTING TOMORROW...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 
KT...PERSISTING INTO WED. LARGE CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL IS STILL 
MOVING INTO AREA GENERALLY S OF 10N AND W OF 100W. IN 
ADDITION...RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO 
THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST BETWEEN GUATEMALA AND COSTA RICA.

$$
CHRISTENSEN