000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022149
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W N OF 8N THROUGH CENTRAL GUATEMALA TO NRN 
YUCATAN...MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
NOTED ALONG THE NRN EXTENT OF THE AXIS OVER LAND...BUT NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EVIDENT OVER PACIFIC WATERS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W FROM 6N-16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE 
AXIS NEAR THE INTERSECTION WITH THE ITCZ...FROM 8N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 104W AND 106W. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVERNIGHT 
AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO AN AREA OF MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
ALOFT. 

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 7N TO 16N ALONG 118W MOVING W 10-15 KT. ONLY 
MODEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOUR...MAINLY NEAR THE ITCZ...BEFORE THE WAVE ENTERS A MORE 
UNFAVORABLE AREA WITH DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 137W FROM 6N-15N MOVING W 10 KT. DRY 
MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES TO PREVENT DEVELOPMENT OF 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS...7N78W 10N90W 10N105W 
11N115W 10N125W 12N133W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 5N TO 
7N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 
94W AND 96W. FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 104W TO 106W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 112W TO 114W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT WAS OFF BELIZE YESTERDAY HAS 
SHIFTED W TO OVER NRN GUATEMALA...AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF 
MERGING WITH A LARGER UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. A 
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS DENTING INTO THE SRN EDGE OF THE 
UPPER RIDGE COMPLEX GENERALLY ALONG 99W FROM 6N TO 13N. 
DIVERGENCE E OF THIS TROUGH HAD BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG 
ROUGHLY 96W...BUT MOST OF THIS IS DIMINISHING CURRENTLY. 
HOWEVER...A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT NEAR 
14N95W UNDER THE NRN EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...AND IS 
MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE W OF THE 
UPPER RIDGE COMPLEX...FROM NRN MEXICO TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 
13N116W...SW TO 10N129W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER 
TROUGH AND THE ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVES NEAR 106W AND 118W AS WELL PROVIDING 
NE UPPER EXHAUST. W OF THE TROUGH...NLY SUBSIDENT FLOW ALOFT IS 
KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY DRY AND SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE...STATIONARY 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED 
NEAR 30N134W. MODERATE TO FRESH NLY FLOW CONTINUES ON THE ERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRES OFFSHORE OF THE NRN BAJA COAST. LARGE 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL IS STILL MOVING INTO AREA GENERALLY S OF 
10N AND W OF 100W. IN ADDITION...RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL 
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST BETWEEN 
GUATEMALA AND COSTA RICA.

$$
CHRISTENSEN