000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021616
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W N OF 8N TO GUATEMALA MOVE W 15 KT. 
CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION W OF WAVE AXIS FROM 12N 
TO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  DEVELOPMENT UNCERTAIN AS PLENTY OF 
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND CONDITIONS WHILE NOT 
UNFAVORABLE ARE BECOMING MORE ADVERSE AS WAVE MOVES W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W FROM 6N-16N MOVING W 15 KT PULLING AWAY 
FROM ADVERSE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND HAS MOISTURE AVAILABLE 
TO DEVELOP MORE CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 118W FROM 6N-18N MOVING W 10 KT.  WAVE 
APPROACHING HOSTILE UPPER PATTERN WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT 
EXPECTED NEXT 48 HRS.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 135W FROM 6N-15N MOVING W 10 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED NOR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS AXIS 
LIES UNDER VERY HOSTILE CONDITIONS ALOFT. 

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS...9N83W  11N114W  10N122W 
12N132W  10N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 
NM OF AXIS FROM 89W AND 117W. 

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER CENTRAL TEXAS HAS UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTEND SW TO SECOND VORTEX AT 20N120W THEN TO THIRD ONE 
AT 1N132W.  DRY AIR MASS WITHIN 180 NM E OF AXIS N OF 15N.  
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE W OF TROUGH BRINGS ADDITIONAL DRY AIR 
MASS W OF 130W.  VERY WEAK SUBTROPICAL JET CORE 40 KT ADVECTS 
MOISTURE NE INTO CENTRAL MEXICO AND TO GULF OF MEXICO JUST E IN 
ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW PRES SYSTEM.  FEEDING OF MORE MOISTURE 
INTO SURFACE LOW PRES 1012 MB COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT 
DUE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER OVER YUCATAN COULD ONLY 
PROMPT MORE RAINFALL IN RAIN SOAKED AREA.

HIGH PRES CENTER 1022 MB AT 30N2130W MAINTAINS STEADY FLOW OF 
NORTHERLIES ALONG COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA WHICH ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT 48 HRS.  

SIMILARLY NE TRADES W OF 125W REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH PERIOD. 

LARGE CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL S OF 10N W OF 100W EXPECTED TO 
IMPACT COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM GUATEMALA TO COSTA RICA.

$$
WALLY BARNES