000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020852
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUL 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0845 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W/88W N OF 8N THROUGH CENTRAL HONDURAS 
MOVING W 15 KT. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE PACIFIC WELL W OF THE WAVE AXIS 
FROM 12N TO THE COAST OF GUATEMALA AND MEXICO BETWEEN 90W AND 
95W INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WEAKENING AREA OF 
CONVECTION WERE NOTED OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. ONLY MODEST 
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS 
ALONG WAVE AXIS WHERE IT INTERSECTS WITH THE ITCZ...AND ALONG 
ITS EXTREME NRN EXTENT OVER GUATEMALA AND SRN MEXICO COASTS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 104W/105W FROM 6N-15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE 
WAVE IS ALIGNED ON THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THIS IS 
PROVIDING DRY SUBSIDENT SLY FLOW ALOFT AND IS NOT PARTICULARLY 
CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WHERE THE WAVE AXIS INTERSECTS WITH THE 
ITCZ...FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 116W/117W FROM 7N-16N MOVING W 10 KT. NIGHT 
TIME INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED SHARP CYCLONIC 
TURNING ALONG THIS WAVE IN THE LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER THE WAVE IS 
SITUATED TO THE E OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. SELY FLOW ALOFT IS 
SHEARING THE CONVECTION TO THE NE...LEAVING AN EXPOSED OPEN WAVE 
IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE WAVE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA WITH DRIER 
MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR...THUS ONLY MODEST CONVECTIVE 
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECT MAINLY ALONG THE ITCZ OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 134W FROM 6N-15N MOVING W 10 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THIS WAVE. THE WAVE IS 
SITUATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. 

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS...10N86W 8N92W 12N103W 
10N109W 12N116W 9N125W 12N134W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 101W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 103W AND 105W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE W OF 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N115W...TO THE NW OF AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 15N104W. SE FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES 
IS TRANSPORTING TROPICAL MOISTURE THROUGH NE MEXICO AND INTO E 
TEXAS...AS WELL AS PROVIDING UPPER EXHAUST TO MODEST CONVECTION 
N OF THE ITCZ AROUND 110W. FURTHER E...A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SWD OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TO 10N97W. E OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER BELIZE...MAINTAINING 15-20 KT 
ELY SHEAR ACROSS THE ITCZ E OF 95W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE 
UPPER TROUGH S OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE ELY FLOW S OF THE UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE 
ALONG 88W.

W OF 120W...SHARPLY AMPLIFIED AND NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE 
IS CENTERED NEAR 23N130W. GENERALLY DRY SUBSIDENT MID AND UPPER 
LEVEL AIR DOMINATES THE AREA W OF 120W WITH LITTLE CONVECTION 
NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ. BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IS SURFACE HIGH 
PRES 1023 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N129W...MAINTAINING FRESH NLY FLOW 
ON THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE N OF 28N BETWEEN 118W AND 126W.

LARGE CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL IS EVIDENT GENERALLY S OF 10N AND W 
OF 100W. MODERATE SWELL...BUT WITH PERIODS OF UP TO 17 SECONDS 
IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST TODAY FROM 
GUATEMALA TO COSTA RICA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT 
BREAKING WAVES ALONG THE COAST.

$$
COBB