000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020341
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W N OF 8N THROUGH CENTRAL HONDURAS MOVING 
W 15-20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
WAVE OVER PACIFIC WATERS...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE 
AXIS OVER HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR. ONLY MODEST CONVECTIVE 
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG WAVE 
AXIS WHERE IT INTERSECTS WITH THE ITCZ...AND ALONG ITS EXTREME 
NRN EXTENT OVER GUATEMALA AND SRN MEXICO COASTS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 104W FROM 5N-15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE 
IS ALIGNED ON THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THIS IS PROVIDING 
DRY SUBSIDENT SLY FLOW ALOFT AND IS NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE 
TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WHERE THE WAVE AXIS INTERSECTS WITH THE 
ITCZ...FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 103W AND 105W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 116W FROM 7N-16N MOVING W 10 KT. SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED SHARP CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THIS WAVE 
IN THE LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER THE WAVE IS SITUATED TO THE E OF AN 
UPPER TROUGH AXIS. SELY FLOW ALOFT IS SHEARING THE CONVECTION TO 
THE NE...LEAVING AN EXPOSED OPEN WAVE IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE 
WAVE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA WITH DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL 
AIR...THUS ONLY MODEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECT MAINLY 
ALONG THE ITCZ OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 133W FROM 6N-15N MOVING W 10 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THIS WAVE. 

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS...10N86W 8N92W 12N103W 
10N109W 12N116W 9N125W 12N134W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 101W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 103W AND 105W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE W OF 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N114W...TO THE W OF AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N104W. SE FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES 
IS TRANSPORTING TROPICAL MOISTURE THROUGH NE MEXICO AND INTO E 
TEXAS...AS WELL AS PROVIDING UPPER EXHAUST TO MODEST CONVECTION 
N OF THE ITCZ AROUND 110W. FURTHER E...A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SWD OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TO 10N95W. E OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE NWRN CARIBBEAN OFF THE BELIZE 
COAST...MAINTAINING 15-20 KT ELY SHEAR ACROSS THE ITCZ E OF 95W. 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH S OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 
THE ELY FLOW S OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 91W.

W OF 120W...SHARPLY AMPLIFIED AND NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE 
IS CENTERED NEAR 23N130W. GENERALLY DRY SUBSIDENT MID AND UPPER 
LEVEL AIR DOMINATES THE AREA W OF 120W WITH LITTLE CONVECTION TO 
REPORT. BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IS SURFACE HIGH PRES 1023 MB 
CENTERED NEAR 30N132W...MAINTAINING FRESH NLY FLOW ON THE E SIDE 
OF THE RIDGE N OF 28N AROUND 120W. 

LARGE CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL IS EVIDENT GENERALLY S OF 10N AND W 
OF 100W. MODERATE SWELL...BUT WITH PERIODS OF UP TO 17 SECONDS 
CAN BE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST TOMORROW 
FROM GUATEMALA TO COSTA RICA.

$$
CHRISTENSEN