000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUL 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W N OF 7N THROUGH ERN NICARAGUA MOVING W 
15-20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE 
OVER PACIFIC WATERS...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER N 
CENTRAL NICARAGUA. ONLY MODEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS 
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG WAVE AXIS WHERE IT 
INTERSECTS WITH THE ITCZ...AND ALONG ITS EXTREME NRN EXTENT OVER 
SRN MEXICO.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W FROM 5N-14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE 
IS ALIGNED ON THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THIS IS PROVIDING 
DRY SUBSIDENT SLY FLOW ALOFT AND IS NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE 
TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE MODEST CONVECTION FROM EARLIER 
THIS MORNING IS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY LEAVING NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W FROM 7N-16N MOVING W 10 KT. SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED SHARP CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THIS WAVE 
IN THE LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER THE WAVE IS SITUATED TO THE E OF AN 
UPPER TROUGH AXIS. SELY FLOW ALOFT IS SHEARING THE CONVECTION TO 
THE NE...LEAVING AN EXPOSED OPEN WAVE IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE 
WAVE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA WITH DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL 
AIR...THUS ONLY MODEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECT MAINLY 
ALONG THE ITCZ OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 132W FROM 6N-15N MOVING W 10 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THIS WAVE. 

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS...9N82W 8N92W 11N102W 
10N109W 12N115W 10N123W 12N133W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 92W...AND 95W AND 96W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 109W AND 111W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE W OF 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N114W...TO THE W OF AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N104W. SE FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES 
IS TRANSPORTING TROPICAL MOISTURE THROUGH NE MEXICO AND INTO E 
TEXAS...AS WELL AS PROVIDING UPPER EXHAUST TO MODEST CONVECTION 
N OF THE ITCZ AROUND 110W. FURTHER E...A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SWD OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TO 10N95W. E OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE NWRN CARIBBEAN OFF THE BELIZE 
COAST...MAINTAINING 15-20 KT ELY SHEAR ACROSS THE ITCZ E OF 95W. 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH S OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 
THE ELY FLOW S OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 91W.

W OF 120W...SHARPLY AMPLIFIED AND NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE 
IS CENTERED NEAR 23N130W. GENERALLY DRY SUBSIDENT MID AND UPPER 
LEVEL AIR DOMINATES THE AREA W OF 120W WITH LITTLE CONVECTION TO 
REPORT. BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IS SURFACE HIGH PRES 1023 MB 
CENTERED NEAR 30N132W...MAINTAINING FRESH NLY FLOW ON THE E SIDE 
OF THE RIDGE N OF 28N AROUND 120W. 

LARGE CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL IS EVIDENT GENERALLY S OF 10N AND W 
OF 100W. MODERATE SWELL...BUT WITH PERIODS OF UP TO 17 SECONDS 
CAN BE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST TOMORROW 
FROM GUATEMALA TO COSTA RICA.

$$
CHRISTENSEN