000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUL 1 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W N OF 7N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 94W-102W ALONG ITCZ AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W FROM 7N-16N MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-13N WITHIN 120 NM OF WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 129W FROM 6N-15N IS MOVING W 10 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 9N84W 9N93W 11N110W 10N120W
11N130W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SW OF SRN TIP OF BAJA 
NEAR 22N114W...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 14N121W. N OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER SRN 
CALIFORNIA. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE IS KEEPING UPPER ATMOSPHERE 
DRY N OF 15N W OF 115W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS 
S FROM 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 36N129W TO 26N124W AND SE TO 20N110W. A 
FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT EXISTS NEAR SRN CALIFORNIA. AS A RESULT... 
FRESH NLY FLOW CONTINUES OFF NRN COAST OF BAJA. MODERATE CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SWELL PERSISTS GENERALLY S OF 10N W OF 125W AS WELL.

WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 11N97W. DIFFLUENCE FROM DEVELOPING UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 9N103W IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION 
BETWEEN 93W AND 115W. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS...MAINTAINING FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT ALONG THE ITCZ. WHILE 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WAVES WILL BE BELOW 8 FT...LONG PERIOD 
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MEXICAN COAST EARLY SUN. PERIODS 
16 TO 17 SECONDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST 
FROM GUATEMALA TO COSTA RICA MON.

$$
MUNDELL