000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010348
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUL 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W FROM 5N TO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS MOVING 
W 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 
94W AND 100W S OF ITCZ AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 111W FROM 5N-15N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 111W AND 
113W. WEAK MID LEVEL ROTATION PERSISTS CENTERED NEAR 11N111W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 128W FROM 6N-15N IS MOVING W 10 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE AT 
THIS TIME. 

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 10N85W 8N90W 10N97W 10N95W 
11N130W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 94W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 
120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SW OF SRN TIP OF BAJA 
NEAR 22N114W...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO A WEAK CIRCULATION 
AROUND 15N120W. N OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER SRN CALIFORNIA. ASSOCIATED 
SUBSIDENCE IS KEEP MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY 
DRY ACROSS THE EPAC N OF 15N W OF 115W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH 
PRES 1023 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 32N132W. ALTHOUGH THIS HIGH PRES 
IS NOT EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG...A SOMEWHAT TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS 
IN PLACE BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH PRES AND LOW PRES OVER THE SW 
U.S. AS A RESULT...FRESH NLY FLOW CONTINUES OFF THE NRN COAST OF 
BAJA. ELSEWHERE...LARGE CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL PERSISTS 
GENERALLY S OF 10N W OF 125W AS WELL.

E OF 110W...
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WRN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TO NEAR 11N97W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED 
OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN. DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS 
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. THIS 
TREND WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER 
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES WWD FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER RIDGE...MOVING 
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...MAINTAINING ELY DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE 
ITCZ. WHILE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 
FT...SLY SWELL WITH PERIODS OF UP TO 16 SECONDS IS EXPECTED 
ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST EARLY SUN...AND PERIODS OF UP TO 17 
SECONDS EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST FROM GUATEMALA 
TO COSTA RICA ON MON. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN