000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JUN 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W FROM 5N TO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS MOVING 
W 10 KT. THE WAVE IS UNDER THE SUBSIDENT AREA OF AN UPPER TROUGH 
AND AS SUCH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE 
AXIS. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF BETTER 
UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHERE IT MAY 
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 111W FROM 5N-15N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY HAS DIMINISHED. SATELLITE 
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL DEVELOPED MID LEVEL ROTATION 
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 9N111W. QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW SHARP CYCLONIC 
ROTATION IN THIS AREA...BUT HINT THAT THE SYSTEM IS STILL AN 
OPEN WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 126W FROM 6N-15N IS MOVING W 10 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE AT 
THIS TIME. 

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 9N84W 8N88W 10N95W 9N103W 
10N110W 9N118W 12N126W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM 
S OF AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 
15N BETWEEN 114W AND 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 100W. DIMINISHING MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 105W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SW OF SRN TIP OF BAJA 
NEAR 22N114W...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO A WEAK CIRCULATION 
AROUND 15N120W. N OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER SRN CALIFORNIA. ASSOCIATED 
SUBSIDENCE IS KEEP MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY 
DRY ACROSS THE EPAC N OF 15N W OF 115W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH 
PRES 1023 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 32N132W. ALTHOUGH THIS HIGH PRES 
IS NOT EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG...A SOMEWHAT TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS 
IN PLACE BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH PRES AND LOW PRES OVER THE SW 
U.S. AS A RESULT...FRESH NLY FLOW CONTINUES OFF THE NRN COAST OF 
BAJA. ELSEWHERE...LARGE CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL PERSISTS 
GENERALLY S OF 10N W OF 125W AS WELL.

E OF 110W...
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WRN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TO NEAR 11N97W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED 
OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN. DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS 
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. THIS 
TREND WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER 
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES WWD FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER RIDGE...MOVING 
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...MAINTAINING ELY DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE 
ITCZ. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN