000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301625
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUN 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W N OF 5N TO ACROSS SE MEXICO IS MOVING
W 10 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
THE WAVE. LONG RANGE NWP MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WAVE 
MAY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS IT TRACKS WWD.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 111W FROM 5N-19N IS MOVING W NEAR 17 KT. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SMALL CLUSTERS OF 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 360 NM W AHEAD OF THE WAVE 
FROM 10N-16N. THIS CONVECTION HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN OVERALL 
AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL 
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNFAVORABLE FOR THIS WAVE TO ORGANIZE INTO A 
LOW PRES SYSTEM.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 125W FROM 7N-19N IS MOVING W 13 KT. MUCH OF
THIS WAVE IS ALREADY INTERACTING WITH THE STABLE STRATOCUMULUS
LAYER OF OVERCAST CLOUDS N OF 16N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-13N.
THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNCHANGED IN STRUCTURE AND 
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE SURROUNDING 
ENVIRONMENT NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF 
ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N85W 10N100W 9N110W 10N120W
10N130W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS EXISTS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 100W-109W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF
THE AXIS W OF 137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 83W-88W...90W-94W...BETWEEN 
109W-112W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL NEARLY STATIONARY ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 29N122W 
WITH A RIDGE SW TO 24N133W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED 
DRY AIR COVER THIS AREA N OF 19N WITH RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS 
CONTINUING...HOWEVER...MODERATE SLY FLOW TO THE SW OF THE 
ANTICYCLONE IS ADVECTING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WELL N OF
THE REGION. EXPECT TREND TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. A 
NE-SW SHEAR AXIS JUST NW OF THE AREA FROM 34N139W TO 27N150W WILL
MOVE SE INTO THE FAR NW PART BY SUN NIGHT. THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 
29N122W SHIFTS SE TO 22N101W IN 36 HRS. SATELLITE-DERIVED UPPER 
LEVEL WIND DATA INDICATES MODERATE ELY SHEAR ACROSS THE ITCZ. A 
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 20N110W IS MOVING
N 15 KT. A TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE CIRCULATION TO A WEAK MID 
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 15N121W WITH A TROUGH SW TO 
10N122W. THE MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AREA IS UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 20N110W PREVERNT IT FROM BECOMING
DEEPER.

E OF 110W...
A RATHER SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE SWWD TO NEAR 10N99W...AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG 
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 88W-94W. SLIGHT DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN E OF THE
MID/UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 20N110W IS RESULTING IN 
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 14N103W 17N102W. THE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY EWD...THEN IS 
EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKER TONIGHT AND SUN. A SMALL BATCH OF 
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
EXTENDING SW TO 12N BETWEEN 96W-98W. A WEAK INVERTED MID/UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING WWD 15-20 KT IS ALONG 7N93W 1N92W. UPPER 
LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN AND EARLIER THE COAST OF PANAMA IS SPREADING WWD IN 
MODERATE ELY UPPER FLOW. DRY AIR IS PRESENT S OF THE ITCZ.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1023 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 31N131W WITH A
RIDGE SE TO 24N120W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 19N W OF 
120W. OVERCAST TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING WSW WITH 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT N OF 14N W OF 125W. 
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NE PART OF THE AREA WILL BRING 
AN INCREASE IN NW SWELL TO N OF BOUT 27N E OF 124W DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HRS.

$$
AGUIRRE