000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300950
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JUN 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE IS 
MOVING INTO AN AREA OF DRY AIR ALOFT BENEATH AN UPPER LOW AND 
AWAY FROM THE DIFFLUENT AREA E OF THE UPPER LOW. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE WAVE ALONG THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W N OF 8N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF WAVE ALONG THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 123W FROM 7N-21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W OF AREA ALONG 141W S OF 16N. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM E OF WAVE ALONG THE 
ITCZ.

...ITCZ...

AXIS ALONG 10N85W 10N130W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 91W AND 101W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 
105W AND 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 
AXIS W OF 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 115W...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 
COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST N OF COLOMBIA 
IS ALLOWING STRONG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE 
BAY OF PANAMA ALONG THE ITCZ. A WEAKER UPPER LOW IS CENTERED 
JUST SW OF THE SRN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...WITH A WEAK UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE OVER W CENTRAL MEXICO. DIVERGENCE ALOFT S OF THIS 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ALLOWING MODEST ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 105W AND 115W. THE TROPICAL WAVES AT 95W 
AND 110W ARE BENEATH THE RESPECTIVE UPPER LOWS...ACCOUNTING FOR 
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH EACH WAVE N OF THE ITCZ. 
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE CARIBBEAN HAS 
EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF MINOR GAP WINDS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS 
IN BOTH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO. MODERATE TO FRESH 
NLY FLOW IS NOTED OFF THE NRN BAJA COAST. 

W OF 115W...
NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 28N120W 
GENERATING ELY SHEAR FROM 500 TO 300 MB OVER ITCZ ALONG THE SRN 
EDGE OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE. A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING
NWD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE NEAR 23N137W. 
NLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS IS ALLOWING TROPICAL MOISTURE TO 
STREAM NWD W OF 130W...BUT OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE UPPER RIDGE IS KEEPING MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY N OF 17N AND 
REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE. SRN HEMISPHERE SLY SWELL IS 
PUSHING ACROSS THE EQUATOR ROUGHLY S OF 6N W OF 120W. SWELL IS 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY W OF 110W THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
MUNDELL