000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292154
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUN 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF TO ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF 
GUATEMALA AND N TO ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS MOVING W 10 KT. THE 
WAVE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF DRIER AIR BENEATH AN UPPER LOW 
AND AWAY FROM THE MORE FAVORABLE AREA TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW. 
AS SUCH...ONLY ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE 
WAVE ALONG THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W N OF 9N IS MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. 
ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS 
S OF THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 120W FROM 7N-20N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DECENT CYCLONIC 
ROTATION...MOSTLY MID LEVEL...ON THE NRN PORTION OF THIS WAVE. 
HOWEVER...THE WAVE AND ITS ACCOMPANIED ROTATION ARE MOVING INTO 
AN AREA OF MORE STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATERS...AN NO IS EXPECTED.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 139W FROM 5N-16N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 
SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ 
FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 138W AND 139W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 10N88W 15N109W 15N118W 
9N132W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM 
S OF AXIS BETWEEN 78W AND 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM S 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 134W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 138W AND 139W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 115W...
A STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE...AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OFF THE 
CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA. DIVERGENT SLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN 
THESE SYSTEM IS PROVIDING EXHAUST TO DEVELOPING STRONG 
CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF PANAMA ALONG THE ITCZ. A 
SECOND...WEAKER UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST SW OF THE SRN TIP OF 
THE BAJA PENINSULA...WITH A WEAK UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER W 
CENTRAL MEXICO...BETWEEN THIS AND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE. DIVERGENCE ALOFT S OF THIS UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS 
ALLOWING SOME MODEST ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL WAVES AT BOTH 92W 
AND 106W APPEAR TO BE GENERALLY BENEATH THE RESPECTIVE UPPER 
LOWS...ACCOUNTING FOR THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH 
EACH WAVE N OF THE ITCZ. AT THE SURFACE...LAND AND SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH EARLIER QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE 
MINOR GAP WINDS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN BOTH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO APPEAR TO BE COMPLETELY DONE...AS THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS IN THE CARIBBEAN. 

W OF 115W...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N120W...NEARLY 
STATIONARY...WITH 15 TO 20 KT ELY SHEAR FROM 500 TO 300 MB 
PERSISTING OVER ITCZ ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE. A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRAVEL NWD 
ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE NEAR 23N137W. THE 
NLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS IS ALLOWING MODEST AMOUNT OF 
TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD ALONG W OF 130W...BUT OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IS KEEPING MID AND UPPER LEVELS 
DRY N OF 17N. THE SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH 
PRES 1022 MB NEAR 31N130W. MODERATE TO FRESH NLY FLOW IS NOTED 
OFF THE NRN BAJA COAST...AND FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 135W...ON THE 
PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRES. STRONG WINDS WELL TO THE S 
IN THE SRN HEMISPHERE IS PRODUCING SLY SWELL PUSHING ACROSS THE 
EQUATOR...ROUGHLY S OF 10N W OF 125W. THE LARGE SWELL IS 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY W OF 110W S OF 10N OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN