000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291628 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI JUN 29 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W N OF TO ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF GUATEMALA AND N TO THE NRN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE WAVE ALONG THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W N OF 8N IS MOVING W NEAR 13 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SMALL CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 7N-13N. CONVECTION IS NOT INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AT THE PRESENT...AND DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT TOO FAVORABLE FOR THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS WAVE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 120W FROM 7N-20N IS MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING CLEARLY DENOTED THE WAVE WITH NE WINDS OF 15 KT AHEAD OF IT...AND MOSTLY WINDS OF 10 KT E OF THE WAVE TO NEAR 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE WEAKENING CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 12N120W 13N121W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 30 NM OF 9N120W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 138W FROM 5N-16N IS MOVING W 15-20 KT. ONLY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS DESCRIBED BELOW UNDER ITCZ. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N82W 10N90W 10N105W 9N110W 12N120W 9N130W 8N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS N OF 4N E OF 82W TO ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND ALSO WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 136W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 102W-108W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 118W-120W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 115W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL NEARLY STATIONARY ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 29N121W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 24N129W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING N NEAR 24N138W WILL BECOME DIFFUSE BY EARLY TONIGHT. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR COVER THIS AREA N OF 19N WITH RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUING... HOWEVER...MODERATE SLY FLOW TO THE SW OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND S OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ADVECTING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD REACHING UP TO 21N W OF 129W. EXPECT TO TREND TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITIONING TO A SHEAR AXIS NE-SW JUST NW OF THE AREA. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH SE INTO THE FAR NW CORNER THROUGH SAT...AND THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 29N121W RESPONSES BY SHIFTING SEWD TO 22N131W. SATELLITE-DERIVED UPPER LEVEL WIND DATA INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG ELY SHEAR ACROSS THE ITCZ. A WEAK INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING WSW IS ALONG 17N118W 13N118W...AND IS RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION W OF THE TROUGH TO JUST W OF THE WAVE ALONG 120W. E OF 115W... A RATHER SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SWD TO NEAR 9N95W...AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 91W-96W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY EWD...THEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD FASTER SAT NIGHT AND SUN. A WEAKER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MAZATLAN MEXICO SW TO 20N114W. LIMITED MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE SINKS SWWD FROM AROUND A RIDGE CREST N OF THE AREA OVER SRN CALIFORNIA. A WEAK INVERTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING WWD 15-20 KT IS ALONG 8N87W 2N87.5W. UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COSTA RICA AND PANAMANIAN COASTS IS SPREADING WWD IN MODERATE ELY UPPER FLOW. DRY AIR IS PRESENT S OF THE ITCZ. $$ AGUIRRE