000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290327
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUN 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W THROUGH CENTRAL NICARAGUA MOVING W 10 
KT. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF WEAK CONVECTION S OF COSTA RICA ALONG 
THE WAVE AXIS S OF THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO MOVING W 10 
KT. DIMINISHING MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 
ACAPULCO ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE REINTRODUCED ALONG 117W. THIS HAD BEEN DROPPED 
EARLIER IN FAVOR OF MERGING IT WITH A LOW PRES CENTER TO THE N. 
HOWEVER...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THIS LOW VERY 
WEAK...LEAVING AN ELONGATED OPEN WAVE TO THE S AS THE DOMINANT 
FEATURE. THE WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 117W TO 120W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 3N-17N ALONG 134W MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF 8N133W.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 9N85W 9N85W 8N100W 15N117W 10N123W 
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 89W 
AND 91W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 
23N135W CONTINUES TO MOVE NWD ON THE WRN EDGE OF A MID/UPPER 
RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 27N122W. MID AND UPPER LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY 
DRY OVER THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR MODEST TROPICAL MOISTURE 
ADVECTING NWD BETWEEN THE TWO PRES SYSTEM ROUGHLY ALONG 128W. 
THIS IS THE UPPER EXHAUST FROM A LARGE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 11N126W AS MENTIONED ABOVE. 20 TO 30 KT ELY 
SHEAR PERSISTS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE ITCZ ON THE 
SRN EDGE OF THE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 27N122W. E OF THE UPPER 
RIDGE...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS FROM NRN MEXICO THROUGH SRN 
BAJA. WHILE THIS FEATURE IS DAMPENING OUT...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AIDED DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK SURFACE LOW 
PRES 1010 MB NOW CENTERED NEAR 15.4N 116.2W MOVING W AT 10-15 
KT. WHILE THE LOW DISPLAYS DECENT ROTATION...CONVECTION IS 
LIMITED AS IT MOVES STEADILY W TOWARD COOLER WATERS AND A MORE 
STABLE AIRMASS.

E OF 110W...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW PERSISTS OVER SRN GULF OF 
CAMPECHE...AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FROM NICARAGUA TO TO 
YUCATAN AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE FEATURE 84W. MODERATE TO FRESH 
NLY FLOW CONTINUES IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA AHEAD OF THIS 
WAVE...BUT WILL DIMINISH AS WAVE APPROACHES. ALSO...MODERATE TO 
FRESH ELY FLOW THROUGH GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ADJACENT PACIFIC 
WATERS TO THE W PERSIST DUE TO SURGE OF ELY FLOW IN THE 
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY. 
$$
CHRISTENSEN