000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUN 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2100 UTC.

...THE TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W THROUGH CENTRAL NICARAGUA MOVING W 10 
KT. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF WEAK CONVECTION S OF COSTA RICA ALONG 
THE WAVE AXIS S OF THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO MOVING W 10-15 
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 
ACAPULCO ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. OTHERWISE DIMINISHING WEAK 
CONVECTION NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AND THE ITCZ NEAR 
8N99W. 

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 3N-17N ALONG 133W MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 9N83W 8N101W 15N116W 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF 7N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W TO 94W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 98W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 115W AND 117W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF 10N115W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 118W AND 130W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 125W AND 128W.

...THE DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 
23N135W CONTINUES TO MOVE NWD ON THE WRN EDGE OF A MID/UPPER 
RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 27N122W. MID AND UPPER LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY 
DRY OVER THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR MODEST TROPICAL MOISTURE 
ADVECTING NWD BETWEEN THE TWO PRES SYSTEM ROUGHLY ALONG 128W. 
THIS IS THE UPPER EXHAUST FROM A LARGE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 11N126W AS MENTIONED ABOVE. 20 TO 30 KT ELY 
SHEAR PERSISTS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE ITCZ ON THE 
SRN EDGE OF THE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 27N122W. E OF THE UPPER 
RIDGE...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS FROM NRN MEXICO THROUGH SRN 
BAJA. WHILE THIS FEATURE IS DAMPENING OUT...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AIDED DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK SURFACE LOW 
PRES 1010 MB NOW CENTERED NEAR 15.4N 116.2W MOVING W AT 10-15 
KT. WHILE THE LOW DISPLAYS DECENT ROTATION...CONVECTION IS 
LIMITED AS IT MOVES STEADILY W TOWARD COOLER WATERS AND A MORE 
STABLE AIRMASS.

E OF 110W...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW PERSISTS OVER SRN GULF OF 
CAMPECHE...AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FROM NICARAGUA TO TO 
YUCATAN AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE FEATURE 84W. MODERATE TO FRESH 
NLY FLOW CONTINUES IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA AHEAD OF THIS 
WAVE...BUT WILL DIMINISH AS WAVE APPROACHES. ALSO...MODERATE TO 
FRESH ELY FLOW THROUGH GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ADJACENT PACIFIC 
WATERS TO THE W PERSIST DUE TO SURGE OF ELY FLOW IN THE 
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY. 
$$
CHRISTENSEN