000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280352
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUN 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0330 UTC.

...THE TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA SWD 
MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W FROM SERN MEXICO SWD MOVING W AT 10-15 
KT. NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING NEAR THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 113W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. DIMINISHING 
CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF 10N113W ALONG WAVE. OTHERWISE NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 128W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF 10N130W.

...THE ITCZ...

8N83W 6N87W 7N91W 5N98W 15N113W 
10N117W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 88W AND 92W.   

...THE DISCUSSION...

UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E-W ALONG 26N. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM NRN MEXICO THROUGH SRN BAJA S OF THE UPPER 
RIDGE...TOWARD AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N130W. A WEAK 
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED MOVING OFF THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 
22N106W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 
17N108W. DIFFLUENCE AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAD BEEN ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE LOW AND WAVE NEAR 113W...BUT THIS 
CONVECTION IS WEAKENING CURRENTLY. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR SUBSIDENT 
AIR IS THE RULE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS W OF 118W. 

AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE TO FRESH NELY WINDS ARE EVIDENT 
GENERALLY FROM 10N TO 25N W OF 130W...BETWEEN 1026 MB HIGH PRES 
NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL 
WAVES. IN ADDITION...MODERATE NLY FLOW IS EVIDENT OFF THE NRN 
COAST OF BAJA ACCOMPANIED BY SWELL UP TO 9 FT.

THE APPROACH OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 90W IS RESULTING 
IN FRESH NLY GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AS 
EVIDENCED BY THE MMIT SURFACE OBSERVATION AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS 
FROM EARLIER TODAY. IN ADDITION...STRONG ELY FLOW OVER THE SRN 
CARIBBEAN IS ALLOWING A MODEST PAPAGAYO EVENT THAT SHOULD BE 
DYING DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 

OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW IS EVIDENT S 
OF THE ITCZ. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING SLY SWELL OVER EPAC 
WATERS W OF 115W THU THROUGH FRI.

$$
CHRISTENSEN