000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272218
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUN 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2130 UTC.

...THE TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA SWD 
MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W FROM YUCATAN AND GUATEMALA SWD MOVING W 
AT 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING NEAR 
THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 113W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BANDING 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 114W AND 116W IS 
DIMINISHING. EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NEAR 15.6N 113.6W. THIS 
SYSTEM IS CONTINUING W INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND SHOULD 
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 122W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE ONLY 
PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE NEAR THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 134W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING NEAR THIS WAVE.

..THE ITCZ...

9N84W 8N96W 15N113W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 87W...AND BETWEEN 93W AND 95W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 
100W. FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 116W AND 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 60 NM BETWEEN 118W AND 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
WITHIN 30 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 127W AND 129W.   

...THE DISCUSSION...

UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E-W ALONG 26N. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM NRN MEXICO THROUGH SRN BAJA S OF THE UPPER 
RIDGE...TOWARD AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N130W. A WEAK 
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED MOVING OFF THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 
22N106W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 
17N108W. DIFFLUENCE AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAD BEEN ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE LOW AND WAVE NEAR 113W...BUT THIS 
CONVECTION IS WEAKENING CURRENTLY. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR SUBSIDENT 
AIR IS THE RULE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS W OF 118W. 

AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE TO FRESH NELY WINDS ARE EVIDENT 
GENERALLY FROM 10N TO 25N W OF 130W...BETWEEN 1026 MB HIGH PRES 
NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL 
WAVES. THE APPROACH OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 90W IS RESULTING 
IN FRESH NLY GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AS 
EVIDENCED BY THE MMIT SURFACE OBSERVATION AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS 
FROM EARLIER TODAY. IN ADDITION...STRONG ELY FLOW OVER THE SRN 
CARIBBEAN IS ALLOWING A MODEST PAPAGAYO EVENT THAT SHOULD BE 
DYING DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO 
MODERATE CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW IS EVIDENT S OF THE ITCZ. 
HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING SLY SWELL OVER EPAC WATERS W OF 115W 
THU THROUGH FRI.

$$
CHRISTENSEN