000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271611
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUN 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1530 UTC.

...THE TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W FROM CENTRAL AMERICA SOUTHWARD MOVING 
WEST 12 TO 15 KT.  NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING 
NEAR THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 111W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 12 TO 15 KT. 
WIDESPREAD STRONG SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN 15N AND 18N AND 
105W AND 113W.  THE CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED OVERNIGHT AND DOES 
DISPLAY SOME CURVATURE SUGGESTING A BIT MORE STRUCTURE THAN 
YESTERDAY.  A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED TO BE IN THE 
VICINITY OF 14N111W.  WHILE THE WAVE/LOW HAS SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC 
VORTICITY TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT GENESIS...TROPOSPHERIC WINDSHEAR 
IS ABOUT 15 KT ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS AND THE SYSTEM IS MOVING 
INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE AS SHOWN BY THE BLANKET OF 
STRATUS/STRATOCU TO ITS NORTHWEST.  THE SYSTEM LIKELY HAS ABOUT 
ANOTHER DAY TO UNDERGO GENESIS BEFORE ITS CHANCES TO FORM BECOME 
MINIMAL.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 120W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 12 KT. THE 
ONLY PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE NEAR THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE 
ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 132W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING NEAR THIS WAVE.

..THE ITCZ...

9N84W 8N96W 14N110W 10N126W 8N140W.  SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS 
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NMI OF THE AXIS BETWEEN CENTRAL AMERICA 
AND 85W...AND WITHIN 60 NMI OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 100W.  
WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NMI OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 119W AND 128W.    

...THE DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...
THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS DOWN TO SOUTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 13N128W TO A HIGH CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF 
MEXICO NEAR 20N106W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N131W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS 
SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE FROM 14N TO 30N BETWEEN 120W 
AND 140W. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...TUTT...EXTENDS 
FROM 14N131W TO 23N118W.

NEAR THE SURFACE...
1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N140W...RIDGE FROM THE HIGH 
CENTER TO 25N116W. ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NEAR 
14N95W...THOUGH THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE LINKED TO ANY 
SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE TODAY.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND SEAS...
A MODERATE PAPAGAYO WIND EVENT IS STILL OCCURRING WITH E TO NE 
WINDS OF UP TO 25 KT AND 8 FT SEAS...WHICH WAS VERIFIED BY THE 
OVERNIGHT QUIKSCAT PASS AND SHIP HOUU.  THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY 
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY AND DIMINISH COMPLETELY IN 48 HOURS.

$$
CWL