000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271003
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUN 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0930 UTC.

...THE TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 109W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 KT. 
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 18N 
BETWEEN 107W AND 108W...AND FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 109W
AND 111W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 118W/119W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 KT.
THE ONLY PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE NEAR THIS WAVE IS IN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 131W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 KT.
NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS AROUND THIS WAVE.

..THE ITCZ...

8N78W 9N90W 8N98W 14N107W 13N110W 11N117W 10N120W 9N130W 9N132W
8N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 8N 
BETWEEN 93W AND 95W...FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 107W AND 108W...
AND FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 109W AND 111W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 13N
BETWEEN 119W AND 127W.

...THE DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...
THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N/33W ALONG 115W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR
10N118W TO 18N110W TO MEXICO NEAR 26N101W. A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N131W.
THIS ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE
FROM 14N TO 30N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS FORMED UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE DRY AIR NEAR 18N126W. THE BASE OF
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL IS TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA REACHING 35N144W.

NEAR THE SURFACE...
1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N140W...RIDGE FROM THE HIGH 
CENTER TO 31N131W 28N124W 24N112W. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 109W
RIGHT NOW LOOKS ABOUT AS HEALTHY AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. THE TAFB
IS NOT GIVING A POSITION FOR IT AND IS NOT CLASSIFYING IT. THE 
HURRICANE FORECASTERS THINK THAT GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS 
SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

THE SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND SEAS...
THE FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
FROM 9N TO 12N EAST OF 95W INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
EASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
FROM 12N TO 25N WEST OF 130W 
NE WINDS 20 KT SEAS 8 FT IN NE SWELL.

$$
MT