000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262121
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...THE TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 107W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 8 KT.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 102W AND 108W. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 116W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THE 
ONLY PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE NEAR THIS WAVE IS ALONG THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 132W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED WITH THIS WAVE.

..THE ITCZ...

7N78W 6N87W 12N103W 9N120W 12N127W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 
120 NMI OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 78W TO 83W...WITHIN 300 NMI NORTH 
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 100W AND 108W...WITHIN 120 NMI NORTH OF THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 108W AND 116W...AND WITHIN 180 NMI ON EITHER SIDE 
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 116W AND 122W.

...THE DISCUSSION...

AT THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N102W. 
A RIDGE AXIS RUNS ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE SW 
CARIBBEAN SEA. A NARROW MID TO UPPER TROUGH RUNS FROM 30N112W TO 
A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 18N122W. A 
SECOND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 
24N127W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR/ 
SUBSIDENCE FROM 14N TO 30N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. 

NEAR THE SURFACE...
A HIGH IS OBSERVED AT 33N 138W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 32N 
137W TO 23N 116W.  THE WAVE ALONG 116W DOES HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL 
AMOUNT OF VORTICITY...BUT ONLY LIMITED CONVECTION WITH LITTLE TO 
NO CURVATURE THUS FAR.  THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS MODELS APPEAR TO 
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE THAN DOES THE 
GFS...WHICH DOES NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURE.  GRADUAL 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE 
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SHEAR AND WATERS REMAIN AT 
LEAST MODESTLY CONDUCIVE.

THE SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND SEAS...
A MODERATE PAPAGAYO WIND EVENT IS STILL OCCURRING WITH PEAK E 
WINDS AROUND 25 KT.  THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY...BUT 
BEGIN WEAKENING IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. WITHIN A REGION EXTENDING 
FROM 10N 140W TO 30N 117W TO 30N 125W TO 22N 140W NE WINDS 20 KT 
SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN N TO NE SWELL. FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N FROM 81W 
TO 86W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN S SWELL.  BETWEEN 
10N TO 16N AND 92W TO 102W E WINDS UP TO 20 KT SEAS 8 FT IN S 
SWELL. 

$$
FETS