000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251614
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W N OF 5N MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING LOW LEVEL TURNING IN THE 
LOW CLOUD FIELD. HOWEVER THE TURNING WAS ELONGATED ALONG 12N 
AND EXTENDED AS FAR E AS 95W. THE BEST TURNING WAS ALONG 
99W/100W AND THE WAVE MAY BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY WWD AT 18 UTC. 
AN 1158 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS MISSED THE AREA OF STRONGEST TURNING. 
IN ANY EVENT SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
CLUSTERING ALONG AND W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N TO JUST S OF 
THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 94W AND 103W. SOME OF THE NWP 
MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW PRES WILL FORM ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AND 
TRACK WNW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W/111W FROM 4N TO 17N MOVING W 15 KT. 
ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS 
AT THIS TIME. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 126 FROM 4N TO 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS 
ALONG THE ITCZ. 

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE LINE...9N78W 11N96W 12N104W 
13N118W 10N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
90-120 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 
85W.

OTHER SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...
REFER TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ALONG 98W 
ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 23N129W 
DOMINATED THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W  AND WAS MARKED BY STRONG 
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. FURTHER E...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
WITH MEAN AXIS ALONG 115W/116W IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ GENERALLY 
BETWEEN 110W AND 120W WITH AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 
20N115W. SOME MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED TO THE 
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BUT FEW CLOUDS ARE NOTED AND NO 
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.

UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND AREAS OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND 
EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE LOCATED NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST 
OF 105W.

AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 115W. 
1027 MB HIGH CENTER IS NW OF THE AREA NEAR 34N138W.   

1158 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 20 TO OCCASIONALLY 25 KT WINDS 
FLOWING OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICAN ISTHMUS INTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO 20 KT IN 24 HOURS THEN 
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS.

$$
COBB