000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250922
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUN 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W N OF 4N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CLUSTERING ALONG AND W OF 
THE WAVE BETWEEN 97W AND 102W FROM 11N-14N. SOME OF THE NWP 
MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW PRES WILL FORM ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AND 
TRACK WNW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W FROM 4N TO 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
THERE IS NO CONVECTION ALONG OR NEAR THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 125W FROM 4N TO 15N MOVING W 15 KT. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 124W-130W. NO 
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION ARE NOTED.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE LINE...8N78W 8N110W 10N125W 
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM 
OF THE POINT 7.5N79.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 8.7N93.8W.

OTHER SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE 
POINT 12.7N98.4W.

...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 108W TO 
120W WITH AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 20N115W. SOME 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED TO THE EAST OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS BUT FEW CLOUDS ARE NOTED AND NO CONVECTION IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE THE AREA IS COVERED BY MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
AN ARE OF VERY DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS LOCATED 
NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE 
TROUGH...108W AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30N120W TO 
20N140W.

UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND AREAS OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND 
EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE LOCATED NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST 
OF 105W.

MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 112W.  REMAINDER 
OF THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS BROAD TROUGH.

WINDS ARE FLOWING OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICAN ISTHMUS WITH WINDS 
OF 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO SHOULD DECREASE TO 20 KT 
IN 24 HOURS THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS.

$$
LL