000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250339 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON JUN 25 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W N OF 5N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE EXTENDS N TO ACROSS SE MEXICO NEAR 16N96W. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CLUSTERING ALONG AND W OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 96W AND 100W FROM 11N-14N. SOME OF THE NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW PRES WILL FORM ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AND TRACK WNW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W FROM 5N TO 15N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE SW EXTENSION OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST N OF THE WAVE TO THE E OF AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 20N116W IS ASSOCIATED WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT JUST N AND NE OF THE WAVE THAT EARLIER TODAY HELPED GENERATE CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE WAVE. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS ELY FLOW ALOFT HAS INCREASED TO THE E OF THE WAVE SHEARING ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE FROM 15N121W TO 8N125W WITH WEAK LOW PRES NEAR 11N124W 1009 MB IS MOVING W 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 123W-125.5W. LATEST SATELLITE IR NIGHT CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME CYCLONIC ROTATION IN AN ELONGATED FASHION FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 122W-126W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE PRESENT TO THE N OF THE WAVE DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SHIFTED EWD AS DRY AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS SPREADS SW TO THE N AND W OF THE WAVE. THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING ALONG AND NEAR THE WAVE AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT TO ITS W. ..ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W 12N100W 13N112W 13N120W 10N127W 8N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 91W-94W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W-90W...AND BETWEEN 94W-100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 123W-125W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 115W... A MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW TEXAS SW ACROSS SRN BAJA TO A NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 20N115W. THE TROUGH THEN CONTINUES SSW TO NEAR 14N117W. DIVERGENCE TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH IS AIDING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 102W-108W. A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER SE MEXICO NEAR 16N93W WITH A RIDGE W TO 16N103W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER SW TO NEAR 11N90W. THE UPPER FLOW IS LIGHT NW OVER SE MEXICO...GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING WNW TO THE PACIFIC NEAR 14N90W. THE UPPER FLOW IS LIGHT TO MODERATE OVER THE PACIFIC S OF THE RIDGE. DIVERGENCE DUE TO THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 92W-100W AS WELL AS CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS CONVECTION TENDS TO FORM IN SMALL CLUSTERS...AND QUICKLY PUSHED WWD UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL ELY FLOW WHICH HAS INCREASED...AND IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. W OF 115W... NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 18N126W DOMINATES THIS PART OF THE AREA WITH AMPLE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY STABLE N OF 15N E OF 133W SLOWLY SPREADING WWD. THE ANTICYCLONE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROVIDING LIFT FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE FROM 15N119W-5N121W. S-SW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH APPROACHING THE NW PART OF THE AREA IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE N OF 15N. THIS FLOW REACHES NNE TOWARDS THE W COAST OF THE U.S. AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SKIRT THE NRN BOUNDARY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH SUN...THEN MOVE INLAND THE WRN U.S. COAST MON WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL WLY CONFINED TO N OF ABOUT 27N. AT THE SURFACE... BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED N OF 12N W OF 134W. NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH 32N130W TO 24N118W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 119W. DIFFERENCE IN PRES BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SW U.S. IS CREATING A TIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT OVER THE NE PART TO ALLOW FOR NLY FLOW OF 20 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE IN N SWELL THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. EXPECT NE TRADES OF 20 KT FROM 9N-15N W OF 125W...THEN REACHING N TO NEAR 28N IN 24 HRS. CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW OF 20 KT SLY WINDS REACHING TO 7N W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 KT IN ABOUT 6-12 HRS AS STRONG ELY IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN SPREAD WWD INTO THE PAPAGAYO AREA. THESE WINDS SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS MODEL WIND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. $$ AGUIRRE