000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242214 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN JUN 24 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W/96W N OF 5N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE EXTENDS N TO ACROSS SE MEXICO NEAR 16N96W. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE ITCZ AT 10N94.5W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HINTS THAT A SMALL LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALSO NEAR THAT SAME LOCATION UNDERNEATH STRONG CONVECTION JUST S OF THE ITCZ FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W FROM 5N TO 15N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...DUE TO THE SW EXTENSION OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST TO ITS N IS HELPING TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AT TIMES ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-14N. THE WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WAVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE FROM 15N121W TO 10N125W WITH WEAK LOW PRES NEAR 11N122W 1010 MB IS MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 12N124W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-12N. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CYCLONIC ROTATION IN AN ELONGATED FASHION FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 120W-126W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE PRESENT TO THE N OF THE WAVE DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SHIFTED EWD AS DRY AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS SPREADS SW TO THE N AND W OF THE WAVE. THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING ALONG AND NEAR THE WAVE AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT TO ITS W. ..ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W 12N99W 10N107W 11N115W 12N124W 9N135W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 90W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 87W-90W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 101W-105W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 115W... A MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW TEXAS SW ACROSS SRN BAJA TO A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING NNW 15 KT NEAR 22N115W. THE TROUGH THEN CONTINUES S TO NEAR 14N117W. DIVERGENCE TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH IS AIDING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 102W-108W. A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N99W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 14N110W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE HONDURAS -NICARAGUA BORDER SW TO NEAR 12N90W. THE UPPER FLOW IS LIGHT NW OVER SE MEXICO...GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING WNW TO THE PACIFIC NEAR 14N90W. THE UPPER FLOW IS LIGHT TO MODERATE OVER THE PACIFIC S OF THE RIDGE. DIVERGENCE DUE TO THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 99W AS WELL AS CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ELY FLOW WILL CHANGE LITTLE...EXCEPT INCREASE S OF 10N THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. W OF 115W... NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 18N126W DOMINATES THIS PART OF THE AREA WITH AMPLE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY STABLE N OF 15N E OF 133W SLOWLY SPREADING WWD. THE ANTICYCLONE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROVIDING LIFT FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE FROM 15N119W-5N121W. S-SW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH APPROACHING THE NW PART OF THE AREA IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE N OF 15N. THIS FLOW REACHES NNE TOWARDS THE W COAST OF THE U.S. AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SKIRT THE NRN BOUNDARY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH SUN...THEN MOVE INLAND THE WRN U.S. COAST MON WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL WLY CONFINED TO N OF ABOUT 27N. AT THE SURFACE... BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED N OF 12N W OF 133W. NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH 32N130W TO 24N118W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 119W. DIFFERENCE IN PRES BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SW U.S. IS CREATING A TIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT OVER THE NE PART TO ALLOW FOR NLY FLOW OF 20 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE IN N SWELL THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. EXPECT NE TRADES OF 20 KT FROM 9N-15N W OF 125W...THEN REACHING N TO NEAR 28N IN 24 HRS. CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW OF 20 KT SLY WINDS REACHING TO 7N W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 KT IN ABOUT 6-12 HRS AS STRONG ELY IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN SPREAD WWD INTO THE PAPAGAYO AREA. THESE WINDS SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS MODEL WIND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. $$ AGUIRRE