000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240446
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUN 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96N N OF 5N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE 
EXTENDS N ACROSS THE E GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO OVER THE SW BAY OF 
CAMPECHE. BROAD MID LEVEL ROTATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY WITHIN THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 91W-98W. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W FROM 4N TO 17N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
BROAD MID LEVEL ROTATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN 
200 NM ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 108W-112W. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 125W FROM 4N TO 15N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL ROTATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY JUST TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N123.5W. BROAD 
AREA OF DENSE CLOUDS WITH LITTLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. 

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N78W ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA 
10N89W 9N97W 12N113W 8N140W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-24N BETWEEN 98W-100W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM 
OF THE AXIS FROM 85W-89W. 

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW TEXAS SW ACROSS NW MEXICO TO A 
WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW 18N118W. DIVERGENCE TO THE SE OF THE 
TROUGH IS AIDING ITCZ CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL 
WAVE ALONG 107W. NEAR STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS 
CENTERED OVER SW MEXICO NEAR 19N103W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 15N110W. 
UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A 
RIDGE WNW INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION TO NEAR 14N98W. THE UPPER 
FLOW IS LIGHT TO MODERATE OVER THE PACIFIC S OF THIS RIDGE. 
DIVERGENCE DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG 
THE ITCZ ALONG 99W AS WELL AS CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND S MEXICO. 

W OF 120W...
NEAR STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 21N127W WITH A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING NE TO BEYOND 32N118W AND SW OUT OF THE REGION 
NEAR 12N140W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY STABLE 
DOMINATE THIS AREA WITHIN 250 NM OF THE RIDGE AXIS THUS LIMITING 
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE AREA. 

AT THE SURFACE...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB HIGH WELL NW OF THE 
REGION THROUGH 32N137W TO 20N118W. BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS MOVING SW COVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 110W. DIFFERENCE IN 
PRESSURE BETWEEN THE BROAD RIDGE OVER THE E PACIFIC AND THE 
LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE SW U.S. ARE CREATING A TIGHT GRADIENT 
OVER THE NE PORTION TO ALLOW FOR N FLOW OF 20 KT WITH SEAS IN 
THE 8-10 FT RANGE IN N SWELL THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. 

$$
WALLACE