000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240333 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN JUN 24 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96N N OF 5N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE EXTENDS N TO ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND WELL INLAND MEXICO. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ON THE ITCZ NEAR 9N93W. IR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CIRCULATION WHICH IS ON THE ITCZ AXIS WHERE CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 11N100W 13N98.5W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W FROM 5N TO 16N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. LIGHTER UPPER LEVEL ELY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DUE TO AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE JUST TO ITS N IS MAINTAINING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 10.5N109W 12N108.5W. SIMILAR CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 110W-111W. THE WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 124W FROM 4N TO 15N IS MOVING W 15-20 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 12N122W 12N122.5W...AND WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 11N TO 14N. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CYCLONIC ROTATION FROM 11.5N 14N BETWEEN 121W AND 124W SUGGESTING THAT WEAK LOW PRES MAY FORMING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE APPEARS GOOD ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE WAVE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HRS. NWP MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WILL MOVE IN A GENERAL WWD MOTION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS A STABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER SUBSIDENCE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR IT TO ORGANIZE IN CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION. ..ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N85W 9N96W 12N110W 10N125W 9N130W 9N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 92W-94W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 107W-110W... AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W-127W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 120W... A MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW TEXAS SW ACROSS NRN MEXICO TO A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING N 15 KT NEAR 23N113W. THE TROUGH THEN CONTINUES SW AS A SHEAR AXIS TO ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING WNW 10-15 KT NEAR 18.5N118W. DIVERGENCE TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH IS AIDING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 104W-110W. A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 19N98W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 15N110W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SW TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE UPPER FLOW IS LIGHT SW-W OVER GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING WNW TO THE PACIFIC NEAR 15N96W. THE UPPER FLOW IS LIGHT TO MODERATE OVER THE PACIFIC S OF THE RIDGE. DIVERGENCE DUE TO THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 99W AS WELL AS CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ELY FLOW WILL CHANGE LITTLE...EXCEPT INCREASE S OF 7N W OF 90W THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. W OF 120W... NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 18N126W DOMINATES THIS PART OF THE AREA WITH AMPLE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY STABLE N OF 15N E OF 133W SLOWLY SPREADING WWD. THE ANTICYCLONE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROVIDING LIFT FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE FROM 15N119W-5N121W. S-SW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH APPROACHING THE NW PART OF THE AREA IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE N OF 15N. THIS FLOW REACHES NNE TOWARDS THE W COAST OF THE U.S. AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SKIRT THE NRN BOUNDARY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH SUN...THEN MOVE INLAND THE WRN U.S. COAST MON WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL WLY CONFINED TO N OF ABOUT 27N. AT THE SURFACE... BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM 12N-24N W OF 129W. HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH 32N130W TO 24N120W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 17N W OF 124W. DIFFERENCE IN PRES BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SW U.S. IS CREATING A TIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT OVER THE NE PART TO ALLOW FOR NLY FLOW OF 20 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE IN N SWELL THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. EXPECT NE TRADES OF 20 KT FROM 9N-15N W OF 125W...THEN REACHING N TO NEAR 28N IN 24 HRS. CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW OF 20 KT SLY WINDS REACHING TO 7N W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 KT IN ABOUT 24-30 HRS AS STRONG ELY IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN SPREAD WWD INTO THE PAPAGAYO AREA. THESE WINDS SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ADVERTISED IN MODEL WIND FIELDS. $$ AGUIRRE