000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232220 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JUN 23 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94N N OF 6N IS MOVING W ABOUT 17 KT. THIS WAVE EXTENDS N TO ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND WELL INLAND MEXICO. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ON THE ITCZ NEAR 9N93W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CIRCULATION WHERE ITCZ CONVERGENCE FLOW IS PRESENT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 12.5N98W 14N98W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W FROM 4N TO 16N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. LIGHTER UPPER LEVEL ELY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DUE TO AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE JUST TO ITS N HAS ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION TO INCREASE FROM 11.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 104W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE. THE WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO ITS W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 124W FROM 4N TO 15N IS MOVING W 15-20 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180-240 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-14N. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC ROTATION FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 121W AND 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 12N122W 14N119W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 10.5N121W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE APPEARS GOOD ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION HERE AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HRS. NWP MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT LOW PRES MAY FORM ON THE WAVE AXIS IN THE NEXT 18 HRS...THEN MOVE IN A WNW DIRECTION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ..ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N80W 11N89W 10N100W 12N110W 12N120W 9N130W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W-108W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 80W-85W AND 98W-100W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 120W... A MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW TEXAS SW ACROSS NRN MEXICO TO A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING NW 10-15 KT NEAR 22N113W. THE TROUGH THEN CONTINUES SW AS A SHEAR AXIS TO ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 18N119W. DIVERGENCE TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH IS AIDING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 100W -120W. A NEARLY STATIONARY AND PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N100W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 15N110W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SW TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE UPPER FLOW IS LIGHT SW-W OVER GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING WNW TO THE PACIFIC NEAR 15N96W. THE UPPER FLOW IS LIGHT TO MODERATE OVER THE PACIFIC S OF THE RIDGE. DIVERGENCE DUE TO THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 92W AS WELL AS CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ELY FLOW WILL CHANGE...EXCEPT INCREASE S OF 7N W OF 90W SUN AND MON. W OF 120W... NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 18N126W DOMINATES THIS PART OF THE AREA WITH AMPLE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY STABLE N OF 15N E OF 133W SLOWLY SPREADING WWD. THE ANTICYCLONE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROVIDING LIFT FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE FROM 15N119W-5N121W. S-SW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH APPROACHING THE NW PART OF THE AREA IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE N OF 15N. THIS FLOW REACHES NNE TOWARDS THE W COAST OF THE U.S. AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SKIRT THE NRN BOUNDARY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH SUN...THEN MOVE INLAND THE WRN U.S. COAST MON WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL WLY CONFINED TO N OF ABOUT 27N. AT THE SURFACE... BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM 12N-25N W OF 127W. HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH 32N130W TO 22N118W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W. DIFFERENCE IN PRES BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SW U.S. IS CREATING A TIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT OVER THE NE PART TO ALLOW FOR NLY FLOW OF 20 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE IN N SWELL THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. EXPECT NE TRADES OF 20 KT FROM 9N-15N...THEN FROM 10-28N IN 24 AND 58 HRS. CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW OF 20 KT SLY WINDS REACHING TO 7N W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 KT IN ABOUT 24 HRS AS STRONG ELY IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN SPREAD WWD INTO THE PAPAGAYO AREA. THESE WINDS SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ AGUIRRE