000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231628
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUN 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W N OF 7N BENDING NW ACROSS SOUTHERN 
MEXICO...MOVING W 15-20 KT. A DIMINISHING LINE OF CONVECTION IS 
EVIDENT ROUGHLY ALONG 96W FROM 8N TO 14N...DOWNSHEAR OF THE WAVE 
AXIS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CIRCULATION AT THE 
INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AND THE ITCZ NEAR 9N93W. DEVELOPING 
CONVECTION FLARING E OF THE WAVE AXIS WHERE E AND SE LOW LEVEL 
FLOW CONVERGES...S OF THE ITCZ FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 88W AND 
92W. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE ENHANCING 
MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 
81W AND 92W. THIS CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AS THE WAVE MOVES 
INTO LESS FAVORABLE AREA TO THE W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 122W FROM 4N TO 14N MOVING W 15 KT. VISIBLE 
IMAGERY SHOWS ELONGATED ROTATION FROM THE SW TO NE ALONG THE 
ITCZ...WITH THE BEST ROTATION FROM ROUGHLY 8N124W TO 13N121W. 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS ENHANCING DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE AREA OF 
SCATTERED CONVECTION AROUND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 
115W AND 125W.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N84W 11N88W 10N96W 14N113W 8N130W 
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 
81W TO 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 105W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 110W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 21N123W. 
FURTHER W...AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NE OF HAWAII IS MAKING SLOW 
PROGRESS E INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE 
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE 
SUBSIDENT RIDGE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODEST MID LEVEL 
MOISTURE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH TO THE W. AT THE 
SURFACE...MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL ON THE 
PERIPHERY OF 1034 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. BROAD AREA 
OF GRADUALLY ERODING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IS NOTED MAINLY W OF 
125W AND ALONG THE BAJA COAST. SHIP REPORTS OFF SRN CALIFORNIA 
AND NRN BAJA COAST SHOW BUILDING SEAS WITH FRESH NLY 
FLOW...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE SWELL.

S OF 15N...UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NRN MEXICO...SE ANTICYCLONE 
NEAR 21N123W...TO NEAR 11N126W. DIVERGENCE ON THE SE SIDE OF THE 
TROUGH IS ENHANCING WIDESPREAD MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 
15N BETWEEN 110W AND 125W. FURTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON 
THE SRN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE IS AIDING CONVECTION TO THE W OF 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W. HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
HIGH MAY ALSO BE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION DOWNSHEAR OF TROPICAL 
WAVE ALONG 93W. CONVECTION IS ACTIVE IN GULF OF PANAMA ENHANCED 
BY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ON SW SIDE OF UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED 
IN SRN CARIBBEAN AND NW COLOMBIA. FOR GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHT STARTING TOMORROW IN RESPONSE 
TO SURGE OF ELY FLOW IN SRN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT 
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 20 KT.

S OF THE ITCZ...SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND MORNING QUIKSCAT INDICATE 
CONTINUING MODERATE TO FRESH CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW ALONG WITH 
SLY SWELL IN WATERS BETWEEN 95W AND 125W.   

$$
CHRISTENSEN