000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230918 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT JUN 23 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE READJUSTED TO 91W N OF 6N BENDING NW ACROSS GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 9N91W AND CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION FORMING JUST W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM THE COAST OF GUATEMALA TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 92W-95W...AND OTHER CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 104W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS REMAINS A FAIRLY WEAK WAVE ALTHOUGH A FOCUS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ WITH A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 103W-106W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 121W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE MAY ACTUALLY BE BENT BACK TO THE NE TO 15N114W...BUT THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL ROTATION IS OCCURRING AROUND 121W. WIDELY SCATTERED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 110W-125W AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 118W-127W. ..ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 9N90W 12N115W 8N122W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 78W-87W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 94W-112W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 5N-15N BETWEEN 112W-126W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 110W... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH JUST SW OF MEXICO CITY AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN REMAIN IN CONTROL AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FAR ERN TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED FROM FLORIDA TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...BUT IT DOES NOT EXTEND FAR ENOUGH S TO DISRUPT THE PREVAILING FLOW. A SURGE OF LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W...CAUSING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO BREAK OUT FROM THE WAVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. RELATIVELY DRY AIR WITH LIMITED CONVECTION REMAINS IN PLACE W OF 95W...EXCEPT FOR A FEW TSTM CLUSTERS NEAR THE ITCZ. W OF 110W... THE LARGE CYCLONIC VORTEX OFF THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE LIES DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FLOW AND EXTENDS FROM THE U.S. DESERT SW TO NEAR 13N140W. RESULTANT MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS A SIGNIFICANT AREA N OF 16N BETWEEN THE MEXICAN COAST AND 133W YET THE THICKEST PART OF THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS BEEN PUSHED W OF 125W. AN UPPER TROUGH LIES JUST E OF THE RIDGE FROM NW MEXICO ACROSS SRN BAJA TO 15N118W BUT IS REALLY ONLY ADDING ADDITIONAL SUBSIDENCE TO THE AREA. S OF 15N THE UPPER FLOW IS PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY...TURNING SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE NE NEAR THE EQ INTO A TROUGH LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG 3S. WITH THE EASTERLIES TURNING SLIGHTLY NE...AND ALSO TURNING SE AROUND THE DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE FARTHER N...A WEAK AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE HAS SET UP BETWEEN 120W-135W. THIS REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WAVE ALONG 121W AS IT MOVES W INTO THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. $$ BERG