000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230315 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT JUN 23 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0245 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86N N OF 6N IS MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE EXTENDS N TO ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS AND INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER WRN NICARAGUA AND NW COSTA RICA AND ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W S OF 14N IS MOVING W 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL ELY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THIS WAVE DISPLACING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TO WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE JUST TO THE N OF THE ITCZ FROM 10N-12N. TROPICAL WAVE FROM 15N119W TO 5N121W IS MOVING W ABOUT 10-15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180-240 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-14N. CONVECTION IS NOT AS STRONG AS 12-24 HRS AGO...BUT FROM TIME TO TIME IT TENDS TO CLUSTER ALONG AND NEAR THE WAVE AXIS AS A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT PATTERN IS GOOD ENOUGH TO FAVOR THE CONVECTION HERE AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS. LATEST NWP MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT LOW PRES MAY FORM ON THE WAVE AXIS IN THE NEXT 12-24 HRS...THEN MOVE IN A WNW DIRECTION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST EXITING THE AREA ALONG 140.5W S OF 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS TIED TO THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 8N-10N. ..ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N88W 10N102W 11N112W 11N120W 8N130W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 122W-126W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W-93W AND 109W-111W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 110W... A MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WRN TEXAS SW ACROSS NRN MEXICO TO A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING W OVER THE SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE TROUGH THEN CONTINUES SW AS A SHEAR AXIS TO 17N117W. TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH...A NEARLY STATIONARY AND PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N101W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 16N106W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SW TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE UPPER FLOW IS SW WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE SHEAR AXIS...THEN BECOMES MODERATE ELY OVER THE PACIFIC AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AS A RESULT OF THE ELY FLOW...DEEP CONVECTION FOUND THROUGHOUT THIS AREA IS NOT ORGANIZING INTO ANY PARTICULAR SYSTEM OF NOTICE. EVEN THE TROPICAL WAVES ARE BEING LIMITED IN ANY DEEP CONVECTION AS CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IS QUICKLY SHEARED UNDER THE ELY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE ELY SHEAR WILL LET UP SOME OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ELY FLOW BECOMING LIGHTER. W OF 110W... NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 22N123W DOMINATES THIS PART OF THE AREA WITH AMPLE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY STABLE N OF 15N E OF 133W SLOWLY SPREADING WWD. THE ANTICYCLONE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROVIDING LIFT FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE FROM 15N119W-5N121W. S-SW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH APPROACHING THE NW PART OF THE AREA IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE N OF 15N. THIS FLOW REACHES NNE TOWARDS THE W COAST OF THE U.S. AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SKIRT THE NRN BOUNDARY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH SUN...THEN MOVE INLAND THE WRN U.S. COAST MON WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL WLY CONFINED TO N OF ABOUT 27N. AT THE SURFACE...MOSTLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED NW OF LINE 15N140W TO 21N127W. HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH 32N130W 24N122W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W. PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR NE PART IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN NLY FLOW OF 20 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE IN N SWELL. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH N OF THE AREA STRENGTHENS AND SPREADS E. EXPECT NE TRADES S OF 20N W OF 125W TO MAINTAIN 20 KT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW IS NOTED S OF 7N E OF 122W. $$ AGUIRRE