000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222158 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI JUN 22 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85N N OF 5N IS MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE EXTENDS N TO ACROSS NICARAGUA AND TO NE OF THE NE COAST OF HONDURAS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ONLY ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W S OF 16N IS MOVING W 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL ELY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THIS WAVE DISPLACING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TO WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE JUST TO THE N OF THE ITCZ FROM 11N-13N. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 120W S OF 16N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 12N-15N. CONVECTION IS NOT AS STRONG AS 12-24 HRS AGO... BUT STILL APPEARS TO CLUSTER ALONG AND NEAR THE WAVE AXIS AS DIVERGENCE ALOFT PREVAILS. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST THAT LOW PRES WILL EVOLVE FROM THIS WAVE WITHIN THE NEXT THE 24-36 HRS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 139W S OF 13N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS TIED TO THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 8N-10N. ..ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W 10N100W 12N116W 7N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 6.5N-12N BETWEEN 121W-123W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W-113W AND ALSO WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W-91W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W-102W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 110W... A MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WRN TEXAS SW ACROSS NRN MEXICO TO A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING N NEAR 23N108W...AND THEN CONTINUES SW AS A SHEAR AXIS TO 18N114W. TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH...A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N122W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 16N106W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SW TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE UPPER FLOW IS SW WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE SHEAR AXIS THEN BECOMES MODERATE ELY OVER THE PACIFIC AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AS A RESULT OF THE ELY FLOW...DEEP CONVECTION FOUND THROUGHOUT THIS AREA IS NOT ORGANIZING INTO ANY PARTICULAR SYSTEM OF NOTICE. EVEN THE TROPICAL WAVES ARE BEING LIMITED IN ANY DEEP CONVECTION AS CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IS QUICKLY SHEARED UNDER THE ELY FLOW. W OF 110W... NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 26N121W DOMINATES THIS PART OF THE AREA WITH AMPLE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY STABLE AIR SPREADING WWD N OF 15N E OF 132W. THE ANTICYCLONE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROVIDING LIFT FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ALONG 120W. S-SW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH APPROACHING THE NW PART OF THE AREA IS PRESENT TO ELSEWHERE N OF 15N. THIS REACHES NNE TOWARDS THE W COAST OF THE U.S. AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. AT THE SURFACE...MOSTLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED NW OF LINE 15N140W TO 21N122W. HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH 32N133W 24N122W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BAJA COAST AND 124W IS RESULTING IN NW FLOW OF 20 KT WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS REPORTING SEAS 8-10 FT IN N SWELL. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH N OF THE AREA STRENGTHENS AND SPREADS E. EXPECT NE TRADES S OF 20N W OF 125W TO MAINTAIN 20 KT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW IS NOTED S OF 7N E OF 122W. $$ AGUIRRE