000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221622
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUN 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W N OF 5N MOVING W ABOUT 15-20 KT. THE 
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE IS MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE EAST 
COAST OF NICARAGUA. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER PACIFIC WATERS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...HOWEVER SCATTERED CONVECTION IS 
EVIDENT OFF THE EXTREME NE COAST OF HONDURAS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE 
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH DECAYING AREA OF 
CONVECTION TO THE E. REMAINING CONVECTION IS NOTED DOWNSHEAR 
FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 99W AND 101W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG ROUGHLY 117W FROM 5N TO 15N. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS STILL ACTIVE MOSTLY 
DOWNSHEAR OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 119W AND 123W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 137W FROM 3N TO 13N. THIS FEATURE WAS MOVED 
AHEAD SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY TO AN AREA 
EXHIBITING DECENT LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE. NO CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W 9N95W 12N100W 8N125W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 99W AND 101W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 
119W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 16N...AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH MID/UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH THE SRN BAJA 
PENINSULA. FURTHER W...MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS SITUATED NEAR 
22N121W. FAIRLY DRY DEEP LAYER AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE NRLY 
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES E OF 130W. MEANWHILE 
A WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING EWD TOWARD THE NW 
DISCUSSION AREA. RELATIVELY MOIST SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THE 
ADVANCING TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST IS NOTED FROM ROUGHLY 
24N140W TO 30N135W. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE 
CENTRAL PACIFIC BUILDING IS BEHIND THE TROUGH. SHIP OBSERVATIONS 
SHOW FRESH NLY FLOW PERSISTING OFF THE BAJA COAST. LARGER SWELL 
IS NOTED FURTHER N MOVING S INTO WATERS OFF NRN BAJA. WINDS AND 
SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE HIGH BUILDS 
EWD...MAINLY OFF BAJA AND OVER TRADE WIND BELT S OF 20N AND W OF 
120W.

S OF 16N...
MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER SW MEXICO NEAR 16N101W. ELY 
SHEAR AT THE SRN EDGE OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONES PERSISTS FROM 
THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND 
THROUGH 140W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AT THE SW EDGE OF THE THE 
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 22N121W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 117W. THE ASCENDING PASS QUIKSCAT DATA 
SHOWED FRESH CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERALLY S OF 7N E OF 120W. 
LARGER SWELL WILL FOLLOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN