000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220919 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI JUN 22 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W N OF 5N MOVING W ABOUT 15-20 KT. THE MAIN PART OF THE WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION JUST OFF THE NE COAST OF HONDURAS...AND A SWATH OF DEEP CONVECTION STREAMING NWD TOWARDS GRAND CAYMAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS LIE ACROSS COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA BUT THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS HARD TO LOCATE ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO LIE NEAR A SPIKE IN THE ITCZ AXIS. SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIE PRIMARILY AROUND THE ITCZ WITH NO ORGANIZED STRUCTURE. TROPICAL WAVE MOVED AHEAD TO 115W S OF 15N BASED ON A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CURVATURE IN A 0213 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. THE WAVE IS MOVING W 15 KT. THE STRUCTURE OF THE WAVE HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 24 HRS WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND DEEP CONVECTION FORMING IN TWO SEPARATE CLUSTERS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 115W-121W AND FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 114W-118W. TROPICAL WAVE MOVED AHEAD TO 132W/133W S OF 14N BASED ON A SMALL PATCH OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS WELL AS MORE APPROPRIATE CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY ALIGNED ALONG THE ITCZ. ..ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 9N85W 8N90W 11N114W THEN 7N115W 9N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION N OF 5N E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 89W-100W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 102W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 113W-121W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 120W. ...DISCUSSION... S OF 15N... THE STEERING FLOW OFF THE MEXICAN/CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST CONTINUES TO BE INDUCED BY AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER W/CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR GUADALAJARA. PERSISTENT EASTERLIES EXTEND FROM COLOMBIA AND THE WRN CARIBBEAN SPREADING WWD ACROSS THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC WATERS...MOSTLY DOMINATED BY A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH SPORADIC CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION TO ABOUT 123W. THE EASTERLIES ARE INTERRUPTED A BIT W OF 123W WITH AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 10N138W AND A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS RESTING ROUGHLY ALONG THE EQ/1N. MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED WITH A TONGUE OF DRY AIR EMANATING N OF THE SRN HEMISPHERE TO ABOUT 7N. N OF 15N... A SHARP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS LOCATED ACROSS NW MEXICO FROM THE GUADELOUPE MOUNTAINS OF W TEXAS TO MAZATLAN TO NEAR 16N114W. DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPED EARLIER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PLATEAU. W OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 25N120W IS PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE MEXICAN COAST AND 127W. THE SUBSIDENCE IS STRONG ENOUGH TO EVEN ERODE THE ERN EDGE OF THE SEMIPERMANENT STRATOCUMULUS DECK TO 118W. BROAD S/SW FLOW LIES W OF THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A GIGANTIC UPPER TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO HAWAII. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NW PART OF THE AREA BUT THE MID/UPPER FLOW HAS ALREADY BECOME PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY...SO IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA. $$ BERG