000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220341
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUN 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS SLOWLY MOVE W ACROSS COSTA RICA WITH 
ASSOCIATED LOW PRES OF 1009 MB NEAR THE E COAST OF COSTA RICA. 
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED WIDELY SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE PRESENTLY NOTED OVER MUCH OF 
COSTA RICA.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W S OF 16N IS MOVING W 17 KT. STRONG UPPER 
LEVEL ELY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THIS WAVE DISPLACING ANY 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION NOT RELATED TO THE ITCZ WELL TO THE W OF 
THE WAVE. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W S OF 16N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE BOTH IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE
OF LINE 14N114W 13N116W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 127W S OF 14N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N83W 10N95W 11N105W 9N112W 10N120W
10N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 87W-90W...AND ALSO WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 114W-119W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 125W...
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN CONTROL FROM CENTRAL AMERICA WWD 
PRIMARILY AS A RESULT OF A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL HIGH 
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE ELY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT NOT ALLOWING FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO ORGANIZED 
...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THAT NEAR THE WAVE ALONG 108W AS 
DESCRIBED ABOVE. A MID/UPPER LEVEL UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW 
INTO THE AREA FROM SE MEXICO AND HONDURAS IS ATTENDED BY STRONG 
DIFFLUENCE TO ITS E OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. THIS ALLOWED FOR 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO EARLIER FIRE
UP OVER ERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA AND NRN COSTA RICA BUT HAVE
RECENTLY DIMINISHED. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO AGAIN FIRE
UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON FRIDAY. A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 12.5N89W IS MOVING N AND BECOMING DIFFUSE. THIS 
CIRCULATION EVOLVED FROM DEEP CONVECTION THAT LAST NIGHT MOVED 
OFF THE COSTA RICAN COAST. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS ANCHORED NEAR 26N119W WITH AMPLE SUBSIDENCE AND 
STABLE CONDITIONS N OF 15N.

W OF 125W...
S-SW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO BROAD TROUGHINESS N OF 
THE AREA COVERS THIS PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 15N. THIS FLOW 
REACHES NNE TOWARDS SRN CALIFORNIA AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF 
THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 26N119W. AT THE SURFACE...MOSTLY OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED NW 
OF LINE 15N140W TO 20N120W TO 30N118W. HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL
NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH 26N125W TO 
21N116W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. 

$$
AGUIRRE