000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUN 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE JUST RECENTLY ENTERED THE AREA ALONG 81W N OF 5N
IS MOVING W 10 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM 
W OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W S OF 16N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. STRONG 
UPPER LEVEL ELY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THIS WAVE DISPLACING 
ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION NOT RELATED TO THE ITCZ WELL TO THE W 
OF THE WAVE. 

TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 108W IS RE-ANALYZED FURTHER TO 
THE W ALONG 111W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SOME OVER THE PAST
24 HRS AND IS CLUSTERING ALONG AND TO THE W OF THE WAVE WITHIN 
45 NM OF LINE 13N109W 12N112W...AND ALSO WITHIN 75 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 8N115W 12N115.5W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 139W S OF 14N IS MOVING W ABOUT 12 KT. THIS
SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE IS ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND WILL SOON
MOVE W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N83W 10N95W 12N107W 7N117W 8N123W
9N131W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N-15N
BETWEEN 102W-107W...AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN
110W-116W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 84W-95W AND BETWEEN 132W-138W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 125W...
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN CONTROL FROM CENTRAL AMERICA WWD 
PRIMARILY AS A RESULT OF A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL HIGH 
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE ELY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT NOT ALLOWING FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO ORGANIZED 
...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THAT NEAR THE WAVE ALONG 108W AS 
DESCRIBED ABOVE. A MID/UPPER LEVEL UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW 
INTO THE AREA FROM SE MEXICO AND HONDURAS IS ATTENDED BY STRONG 
DIFFLUENCE TO ITS E OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS SUSTAINING
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER ERN HONDURAS
...NICARAGUA AND NRN COSTA RICA. A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
NEAR 11N88W IS MOVING N AND BECOMING DIFFUSE. THIS CIRCULATION
EVOLVED FROM DEEP CONVECTION THAT LAST NIGHT MOVED OFF THE COSTA
RICAN COAST. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
ANCHORED NEAR 26N119W WITH AMPLE SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE CONDITIONS
N OF 15N.

W OF 125W...
S-SW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO BROAD TROUGHINESS N OF 
THE AREA COVERS THIS PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 15N. THIS FLOW 
REACHES NNE TOWARDS SRN CALIFORNIA AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF 
THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 26N119W. AT THE SURFACE...MOSTLY OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED NW 
OF LINE 15N140W TO 20N120W TO 30N118W. A 1024 MB NEARLY 
STATIONARY HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N133W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH 26N125W TO 21N116W. HIGH PRES COVERS 
THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. 

$$
AGUIRRE