000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210916 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU JUN 21 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. EXTRAPOLATED POSITION OF THE WAVE LIES BETWEEN TWO ITCZ CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...ONE LOCATED SW OF COSTA RICA AND THE OTHER BETWEEN 95W-102W. SATELLITE IMAGERY PRESENTS NO CLEAR CIRCULATION. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT. BASED ON SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY THE WAVE MAY BE LOCATED SLIGHTLY FARTHER W NEAR 107W/108W BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT LOCATION IS LOW. REGARDLESS...THE AXIS LIES W OF A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION IN AN AREA VOID OF MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 124W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH HAS BEEN TRACKED WITH THE WAVE OVER THE PAST 24 HRS OR SO APPEARS TO BE ALONG 127W YET THE ENTIRE VICINITY IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 137W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ BUT OTHERWISE HAS NO NOTICEABLE SIGNATURE. ..ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N77W 9N85W 7N100W 11N123W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 3N-6N E OF 79W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 84W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 94W-105W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 5N-8N W OF 135W. ...DISCUSSION... MEXICO... A SHARP UPPER TROUGH LIES ACROSS NW MEXICO TO SRN BAJA WITH DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE COVERING MOST OF THE COUNTRY S OF 29N. AS A RESULT...WEAK DIFFLUENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING PRODUCED SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PLATEAU REGION AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TSTMS OVER NW MEXICO PRODUCED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH MOVED SW TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA. ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH PERHAPS SOME QUIETER WEATHER OVER THE PLATEAU BY THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE VALUES DECREASE. E PART... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED N OF MEXICO CITY NEAR 21N100W AND A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ACROSS HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR. E OF 90W THE UPPER FLOW IS PRIMARILY SE TO SOUTHERLY AS IT FEEDS INTO THE TROUGH AND THIS IS PRODUCING A GENERAL DIFFLUENT PATTERN NEAR NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES FROM THE COSTA RICAN COAST SWWD FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 84W-89W WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER MOVING ACROSS ERN NICARAGUA. DIFFLUENCE TAPERS OFF FARTHER W AS THE FLOW BECOMES UNIDIRECTIONAL ALTHOUGH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG ITCZ IS FOSTERING ANOTHER CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 94W-105W. W PART... A LARGE CYCLONIC VORTEX REMAINS PLANTED OVER THE NE PACIFIC WATERS AND HENCE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A STRONG UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FLOW NEAR 23N120W WITH A LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE LYING N OF 16N BETWEEN THE MEXICAN COAST AND 126W. SOME MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN NWD W OF 126W INTO THE SWLY FLOW. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 15N140W TO 10N130W AND IS PRODUCING A PATCH OF STRONGER SUBSIDENCE FROM 11N-20N W OF 133W. IN GENERAL THOUGH...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS DOMINATING THE AREA N OF 14N W OF 117W. $$ BERG