000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210344 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU JUN 21 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W FROM 4N TO 16N IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. MAIN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS ALONG THE ITCZ AS DESCRIBED BELOW. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 10N TO 12N. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 104W/105W S OF 16N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL ELY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THIS WAVE DISPLACING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION NOT TIED TO THE ITCZ TO THE W OF THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 122W S OF 16N IS MOVING W 12 KT. ONLY DEEP CONVECTION IS THAT WHICH LAGS BEHIND THE WAVE WITHIN 30 NM OF 14N119W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 135W S OF 14N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS RATHER SHORT AMPLITUDE WAVE IS ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH RELATED CONVECTION DESCRIBED BELOW. ..ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6.5N78W 9N92W 9N105W 12N120W 9N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W-87W AND 96W-100W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W-135W...AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W-111W AND ALSO BETWEEN 130W-133W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 120W... DEEP EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN CONTROL FROM CENTRAL AMERICA WWD PRIMARILY AS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE ELY FLOW HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND QUITE STRONG DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS NOT ALLOWING FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO ORGANIZED AS TROPICAL WAVES PROPAGATE THROUGH THIS PART OF THE DISCUSSION. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE N/CENTRAL TO HONDURAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCING AN AREA OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE OVER WRN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA...AND IS SUSTAINING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER COSTA RICA...PANAMA AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS BEING AIDED N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 82W-86W INCLUDING THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING RAPIDLY SW ALONG AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COAST SE MEXICO AND GUATEMALA. W OF 120W... A LARGE CYCLONIC VORTEX IS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST S OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ITS CIRCULATION REACHES WELL INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FROM S OF HAWAII TOWARDS CALIFORNIA. THIS FLOW IS ALSO BOUNDED BY A LARGE UPPER HIGH NEAR 22N121W WITH A RIDGE TO A CREST NNE TO SRN CALIFORNIA WHICH IS PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 18N. AT THE SURFACE ...MOSTLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED NW OF LINE 20N119W 14N140W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY AS FAR W AS 128W...THEN TURNS MORE SLY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH FARTHER N. ALSO...A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING WNW 15-20 KT IS NEAR 13N137W. A TROUGH EXTENDS NNE FROM THE CIRCULATION TO NEAR 20N136W. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE GREATEST IN COVERAGE TO THE E AND SE OF THE TROUGH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. $$ AGUIRRE