000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202214
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUN 20 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130  UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W N OF 4N IS MOVING W 10 KT. MAIN 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS ALONG THE ITCZ AS 
DESCRIBED BELOW. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE 
WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 10N TO 12N.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W S OF 16N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL ELY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THIS WAVE DISPLACING
ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION NOT TIED TO THE ITCZ W OF THE AXIS. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 121W/122W S OF 16N IS MOVING W 15 KT. ONLY
DEEP CONVECTION IS THAT NOTED WITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR
13N120.5W WHERE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 135W S OF 14N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS 
RATHER SHORT AMPLITUDE WAVE IS ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH 
RELATED CONVECTION DESCRIBED BELOW.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 8N90W 9N100W 6N106W 12N115W 
8N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 130W-135W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS 108W-104W...E OF 98W 
AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 135W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 99W-102W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN CONTROL FROM CENTRAL AMERICA WWD 
PRIMARILY AS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED OVER 
CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS IS THE SAME ELY FLOW THAT IS INHIBITING THE
TROPICAL WAVES 91W AND 121W/122W FROM ACQUIRING ANY DEVELOPMENT.
AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM ERN CUBA TO NICARAGUA CONTINUES
TO PRODUCING AN AREA OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE OVER WRN COLOMBIA AND 
PANAMA...AND IS SUSTAINING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER COSTA RICA...PANAMA AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC
WATERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS BEING AIDED N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 
81W-86W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING 
RAPIDLY SW ALONG AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COAST SE MEXICO AND 
GUATEMALA.

W OF 120W...
A LARGE CYCLONIC VORTEX IS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST S OF THE GULF 
OF ALASKA AND ITS CIRCULATION REACHES WELL INTO THE DISCUSSION 
AREA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FROM S OF HAWAII TOWARDS 
CALIFORNIA. THIS FLOW IS ALSO BOUNDED BY A LARGE UPPER HIGH NEAR 
22N121W WITH A RIDGE TO A CREST NNE TO SRN CALIFORNIA WHICH IS 
PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 18N. AT THE SURFACE
...MOSTLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE NOTED NW OF LINE 20N119W 14N140W.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PREDOMINANTLY 
EASTERLY AS FAR W AS 128W...THEN TURNS MORE SLY IN RESPONSE TO 
THE UPPER TROUGH FARTHER N. ALSO...A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING WNW 15-20 KT IS NEAR 13N137W. AN 
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH MOVING W 15 KT EXTENDS FROM 10N134W TO
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 2N133W. THESE FEATURES
ARE HELPING TO ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ W 
OF 130W.

$$
AGUIRRE