000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191515
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUN 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES..

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W N OF 5N MOVE W 10 KT.  LITTLE WEATHER IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98.5W N OF 4N MOVE W 10-15 KT. LITTLE 
WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 115W FROM 3N TO 16N MOVE W 10-15 KT. THIS 
IS THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WAVE OVER THE AREA WITH A LARGE 
AREA OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-12N 
BETWEEN 113W-118W. THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY DUE TO INCREASED 
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 129W FROM 3N TO 15N MOVE W 10 KT. LITTLE 
WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...6N77W 8N105W 10N115W 7N125W 8N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 
9N98.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 
NM OF THE POINTS 11.5N115.3W AND 9.7N119.4W.

...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE THROUGH 
32N128W TO 15N140W.  THE AREA IS CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS WITH OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS NORTH OF 20N AND BROKEN 
LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF 20N. 

MOSTLY UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG LINE 10N105W TO 13N130W.  
SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS LINE TO THE ITCZ AND TO THE WEST OF 95W 
THE AREA IS MOIST IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH AREAS OF 
MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION. EAST OF 95W THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ARE DRYER WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 110W. ELSEWHERE 
BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED.     

OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS OBSERVED NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 112W. 
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS BETWEEN 15N AND 20N WEST OF 115W.

NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF NEAR 20 KT WILL BE IN THE REGION OF 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS.

$$
LL