000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190921 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE JUN 19 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES.. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W/85W N OF 6N MOVING W 10 KT. A PATCH OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS MOVING ACROSS SRN NICARAGUA... COSTA RICA...AND NW PANAMA WITH EARLIER CONVECTION HAVING ALMOST DISSIPATED. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 82W-88W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W/95W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ALL ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BEING SHEARED W OF THE AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 96W-100W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS IS THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WAVE OVER THE AREA WITH A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 112W-120W. THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY DUE TO INCREASED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 127W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVED BY EXTRAPOLATION WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ..ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 9N95W 9N105W 8N120W 9N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 97W-105W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 6N-10N W OF 136W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 110W... A WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND IS PRODUCING BROAD E TO SE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS S OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A DEEP MOISTURE SUPPLY OVER THE AREA IS SUPPORTING MAINLY SPORADIC SHOWERS NEAR AND N OF THE ITCZ...EXCEPT FOR THE REGION N OF 10N E OF 93W OFF THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR WHERE A DRY AIR INTRUSION HAS WORKED ITS WAY W FROM THE CARIBBEAN. THIS AREA ALSO COINCIDES WITH A WEAK PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT FORCED BY STRONGER WINDS OVER THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AS FAR AS TSTM ACTIVITY...SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE FORMED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN COAST FROM THE PANAMA BORDER SWD TO NEAR CALI AND EXTENDING EWD TO BOGOTA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING ACROSS SRN NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND NW PANAMA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE. W OF 110W... A NEARLY STATIONARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIES OVER THE EXTREME NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH BROAD SWLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING N OF 20N W OF 127W. EVEN THOUGH THIS STREAM OF AIR HAS ORIGINS IN THE DEEP TROPICS...MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY SCARCE WITH NO MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS NOTED. ALSO...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 25N124W IS SUPPRESSING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WHILE ALSO PRODUCING A STABLE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD N OF 20N W OF BAJA. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH LIES ACROSS NW MEXICO AND SRN BAJA AND IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE MEXICAN PLATEAU AND MOUNTAINS. FARTHER S...E TO SE FLOW CURVES AROUND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH REACHING S TO ABOUT 10N. A WEAK AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN 110W-120W APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM EQ118W NW TO 10N130W AND IS SURROUNDED BY AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE MAINLY BETWEEN 120W-130W S OF THE ITCZ. DUE TO THE TROUGH...THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS OUT OF THE W/NW AND YIELDS A SHARP DIVISION FROM THE DEEP ELY FLOW OVER THE REST OF THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC. $$ BERG