000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190340
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUN 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES..

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 6N ALONG 83W MOVING W AT 10 KT.  LITTLE 
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 5N ALONG 94W MOVING W AT 12 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM FROM 95W TO 96W. 

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 3N TO 15N ALONG 111W MOVING W AT 12 KT. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N FROM 109W AND 
111W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 3N TO 15N ALONG 127W MOVING AT W 10 KT. NO 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

..ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...9N85W 10N95W 11N111W 9M125W 
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 
95W TO 96W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 110W AND 113W. 

...DISCUSSION...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH NW MEXICO AHEAD OF AN 
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ALONG ROUGHLY 122W. DEEP LAYER DRY 
SUBSIDENT AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THE NWLY FLOW 
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES 1026 MB IS 
CENTERED N OF THE AREA OVER THE NE PACIFIC. MODERATE TO FRESH NE 
TO E FLOW IS EVIDENT ON LATEST SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND THE MORNING 
QUIKSCAT IMAGERY...ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH PRES. 
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE FIELDS OF STRATOCUMULUS MOVING SWD 
OVER THE AREA AS FAR S AS 16N. W OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...A 
WEAK CUTOFF LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N 140W. THIS FEATURE WILL 
OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT TO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER TROUGH 
MOVING TO THE N OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN 
SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT S IN RESPONSE...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE 
VIRTUALLY NO IMPACT ON STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.

FURTHER S...UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE. ALONG 
WITH THE MID/UPPER RIDGE ALONG 122W...THESE FEATURES ARE 
ALLOWING MID/UPPER LEVEL ELY FLOW ACROSS THE ITCZ AS FAR W AS 
130W. HOWEVER...DESPITE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVES...NO ORGANIZED 
CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE...FRESH ELY SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN...AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS FLOW WILL PUSH 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP THROUGH TOMORROW...ALLOWING 
WINDS UP TO 20 KT...THEN DIMINISHING.

$$
FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN